Amidst the ongoing conflict between Hamas, Israel, and Iran, Hezbollah finds itself in a delicate position, cautiously navigating the trenches to avoid plunging into an all-out war. As the relentless bombardment of the Gaza Strip by Israel continues, Hezbollah is keenly aware of Lebanon’s public opinion regarding the expansion of the conflict. Analysts suggest that the militant group must tread carefully to avoid provoking a wider war.
Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech on Saturday, condemned Israel’s actions while exercising restraint. However, Israel’s defense minister issued dire warnings against the Lebanese people, leading to an escalation in attacks between the two sides. Hezbollah launched attacks on Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms, which it considers occupied Lebanese territory. Speculation arose as to whether Hezbollah would fully engage in the battle, but Nasrallah remained silent for weeks before delivering two speeches within eight days.
In his second speech on November 11, Nasrallah emphasized Hezbollah’s intention to expand attacks on Israel in response to their abuses of Palestinians or attacks on Lebanon. However, he also expressed a desire to avoid provoking a wider war. The disparity between Nasrallah’s measured tone and Israel’s response, threatening to replicate its actions in Gaza in Beirut, raises questions about Israeli leaders’ perception of Hezbollah’s hesitance or reluctance.
Lebanon has hosted a significant Palestinian population since the 1967 war, when large numbers of refugees sought asylum there. Palestinian fighters from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) used Lebanese territory to launch attacks on Israel, leading to retaliation and the group’s involvement in the Lebanese Civil War from 1975 to 1990. While some Lebanese communities harbor trauma and animosity towards Palestinians, there is widespread opposition to Israeli military actions against Gaza’s civilians.
The current confrontation with Israel appears to have revitalized Hezbollah, aligning the group more closely than ever since 2006. Despite this, Nasrallah and other party leaders aim to portray Hezbollah as a rational actor that will not recklessly engage in a wider war with Israel, according to analysts. Joseph Daher, author of “Hezbollah: The Political Economy of Lebanon’s Party of God,” notes that Hezbollah is socially and politically more isolated now compared to 2006.
Hezbollah’s popularity soared regionally after the 34-day war with Israel in 2006, despite the significant loss of Lebanese civilian lives. However, subsequent domestic confrontations and involvement in the Syrian civil war have eroded their support outside their base. Dissenting voices within Lebanon, including figures like Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Druze community leader Walid Jumblatt, have called for avoiding a wider confrontation with Israel.
Hezbollah’s opponent, the right-wing nationalist Lebanese Forces party, does not pose a significant military threat. Nevertheless, Hezbollah takes their sentiments into account. The Lebanese Forces resent Hezbollah’s ability to wage war without state backing but have chosen not to be vocal at this moment. The group’s aim is to avoid the war for now, but they are prepared to engage if necessary, while ensuring they are not seen as provoking it.
As tensions escalate between Israel and its northern neighbor, Hezbollah’s actions on the border are linked to military considerations in Gaza. They strategically aim to divert Israel’s attention from Gaza by prolonging their own tactics until the fighting there ceases. A wider war would not benefit either Hezbollah or their partner, Iran.
Contrary to popular belief, Hezbollah is not an Iranian puppet but rather acts in its own interests. While they maintain support and coordination with Iran, they make their own decisions. Iran, keen to preserve Hezbollah as its crown jewel in the regional network of influence, advises its allies to avoid expanding the war.
In conclusion, Hezbollah finds itself navigating a precarious situation amidst escalating tensions with Israel and Gaza. The group seeks to avoid a wider war while strategically engaging to protect its interests. As the conflict unfolds, the region watches with bated breath to see the outcome of these delicate maneuvers.
