Analysts suggest that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is hesitant to accept Palestinian refugees due to concerns about potential domestic instability. As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues to escalate, experts have expressed doubt that el-Sisi will absorb the estimated 2.2 million Palestinians who may be displaced from the Gaza Strip. Nancy Okail, president and CEO of the progressive nonprofit Center for International Policy, believes that the political cost outweighs any potential benefits for Egypt. The influx of Palestinian refugees could spark unrest within the country. However, the possibility of mass displacement from Gaza has raised concerns within el-Sisi’s government.
Recent reports have indicated that Israel’s Ministry of Intelligence proposed evacuating all Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt, which has further fueled speculation. There are also rumors that Israeli leaders are attempting to persuade Cairo to accept displaced Palestinians by offering debt relief. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly sought the assistance of European leaders in convincing el-Sisi to welcome refugees, a proposal that the Egyptian president has rejected thus far. Timothy Kaldas, an expert on Egypt’s political economy, believes that there is a genuine fear among Egyptians and Palestinians that some Israeli leaders seek to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza. Kaldas argues that Palestinians should have the choice to seek asylum in neighboring countries, a right currently denied by Egypt and Israel.
The issue of Palestinian rights has long been a popular cause in Egypt. If el-Sisi were to acquiesce to pressure and absorb Gaza’s population, it could lead to widespread outrage and protests, potentially endangering his presidency. Okail suggests that such a move would be interpreted as enabling Israel to expand and solidify its occupation of Palestinian territories. Any resulting unrest may prompt the military to intervene in order to restore order. The Egyptian army is known to be strongly against the idea of forcibly removing Palestinians from their land.
El-Sisi’s concerns also extend to the potential establishment of a “new base” for terrorist operations if Palestinians were displaced to Egypt’s Sinai region. He argues that this scenario could jeopardize the peace deal between Egypt and Israel, which was brokered by the United States at the Camp David Summit in 1978. Kaldas acknowledges these security fears and suggests that Egypt is particularly worried about smaller armed groups rather than Hamas, with whom they have a more direct relationship.
While el-Sisi has resisted calls to accept displaced populations from Gaza, some experts believe that he may be leveraging the situation to his advantage. Hossam Bahgat, founder of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, suggests that the Egyptian government is using Western support for Israel to argue against criticism of human rights abuses in Egypt. Bahgat claims that pro-regime figures on social media are highlighting the perceived hypocrisy of Western countries in light of this situation. This may provide el-Sisi with greater cover to commit human rights violations domestically without concern for his image.
Despite ongoing discussions and speculation, the fate of the displaced Palestinians from Gaza remains uncertain. As the conflict continues to escalate, the international community watches closely for any potential resolutions or developments in the situation.
