As the conflict between Israel and Gaza continues to escalate, Israel finds itself facing the prospect of a two-front war, with Hezbollah, the Lebanese non-state military, posing a significant threat from the north. This development comes as Israeli forces navigate a careful approach, gradually increasing their force levels in a rolling operation into Gaza. While the intention behind this approach remains uncertain, it allows the Israeli military to adapt tactics based on the situation on the ground and buys time for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to solidify his position. However, Netanyahu’s intransigence has drawn criticism from many who accuse him of being responsible for the recent attacks.
Hezbollah, also known as the Party of God, was formed in the 1980s during Lebanon’s civil war and quickly became a formidable fighting force. With an armed wing supported by Iran, Hezbollah has proven itself capable of challenging Israeli forces. In 2000, their resistance led to the end of Israel’s occupation of South Lebanon. In 2006, during a one-month war with Israel, Hezbollah demonstrated unexpected sophistication and capability by attacking one of Israel’s most modern ships. It is estimated that Hezbollah has approximately 60,000 fighters under its command, making it a significant force that surpasses most state armies in terms of military organization, discipline, and dedication.
While Hezbollah lacks certain conventional military assets such as aircraft and tanks, it possesses a potent arsenal of missiles, rockets, and field artillery. Most of these weapons were initially supplied by Iran and further enhanced during the Syrian war, where Hezbollah supported President Bashar al-Assad’s forces. The determination and resilience displayed by Hezbollah fighters in past conflicts have forced Israel to deploy significant reinforcements along the Lebanon border, anticipating a potential advance by Hezbollah into Israeli territory.
However, Hezbollah’s strategic advantage lies in its existence as an “army-in-waiting.” By simply maintaining a low-level engagement, Hezbollah effectively blocks significant Israeli military assets and avoids provoking an Israeli offensive into Lebanon. The group can choose to respond to the destruction in Gaza by launching moderate rocket attacks against Israel, putting strain on Israel’s Iron Dome defenses. Additionally, Hezbollah could target cities in the north, such as Haifa or Kiryat Shmona, further escalating the conflict and gaining popularity among Arab and Muslim communities as a non-Palestinian force supporting the Palestinians’ fight.
While the current situation at Israel’s northern border remains tense but stable, the potential for an unpredictable event to ignite a larger conflict looms over both sides. Rational behavior becomes fragile and limited in situations dominated by fear, frustration, and strong collective emotions. Both Israel and Hezbollah recognize the convenience of the current standoff, but they must also acknowledge the possibility of a small spark igniting a fire that neither can control.
In conclusion, Israel’s conflict with Gaza is further complicated by the strategic positioning of Hezbollah in Lebanon. As Israel continues its ground invasion into Gaza, the threat from Hezbollah’s formidable military capabilities poses a significant challenge. The delicate balance between both sides, while currently stable, can be easily disrupted by unforeseen events. The situation reinforces the importance of finding a diplomatic solution to de-escalate tensions and prevent the outbreak of a larger regional conflict.
