Republican strategist Matt Keelen and Democratic strategist Kevin Walling recently discussed the upcoming 2024 presidential race, focusing on the Republican Jewish summit and the potential of Rep. Dean Phillips, a Democrat from Minnesota, to challenge President Biden. However, according to a new poll, former President Trump continues to maintain a commanding lead over his rivals in Iowa, the state that traditionally kicks off the Republican presidential nominating calendar.
The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey, conducted from October 22nd to 26th, reveals that Trump currently holds a 43% support among likely caucus goers in Iowa. This marks a four-point increase from August. In comparison, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley each stand at 16% in the same poll. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina received 7% support, with no other candidate surpassing 4%.
The release of this poll comes with 11 weeks remaining until the Jan. 15 caucuses, providing valuable insight into the preferences of Iowa voters. According to J. Ann Selzer, a veteran Iowa pollster, Trump’s significant lead in the state is a testament to the enthusiasm and commitment of his supporters. The survey also indicates that Trump enjoys double-digit leads over his rivals in other crucial early voting states like New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as dominating leads in national polls.
Despite facing four trials, including two on charges related to his attempt to overturn the 2020 election results, the indictments against Trump seem to have only bolstered his support among Republican voters. In fact, the former president’s popularity remains strong and shows no signs of waning.
It is worth noting that the Iowa poll was conducted prior to former Vice President Mike Pence suspending his campaign and dropping out of the 2024 race. Pence had garnered 2% support in Iowa, and his withdrawal prompted a reallocation of his supporters’ second choices.
The poll also reveals that more than half of the respondents (54%) expressed the possibility of changing their minds regarding their preferred candidate, while 41% claimed their decision was final. Interestingly, over 60% of Trump supporters stated that their minds were made up, whereas certainty dropped significantly among DeSantis and Haley backers.
As the 2024 campaign trail progresses, these insights from the Iowa poll will likely shape the strategies of the Republican candidates. With Trump’s continued strong showing, other contenders will need to work hard to close the gap and gain the support necessary to challenge the former president’s dominance.
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