In a recent report by the Heritage Foundation, it has been revealed that homicide rates have been higher in Democrat-run “blue counties” compared to “red counties” since 2002. This finding contradicts the popular talking point promoted by prominent liberals like California Governor Gavin Newsom and billionaire George Soros. While Newsom has claimed that “8 of the top 10 murder states are red,” Soros has argued that “violent crime in recent years has generally been increasing more quickly in jurisdictions without reform-minded prosecutors” and “murder rates have been rising fastest in some Republican states led by tough-on-crime politicians.”
However, according to the Heritage Foundation’s report, studies cited by Democrats to support their argument use a “flawed” methodology. The report argues that crime is a hyper-localized phenomenon and should be analyzed at the local level rather than the state level. Kevin Dayaratna, the author of the report, explains that crime analysis must take into account the local level where prosecutions occur and crime is handled by local police. When examining the data at the county level, the trend is reversed, with homicide rates being 60% higher in blue counties than red counties.
The report highlights that drawing conclusions from state-level homicide data neglects important variation in law enforcement approaches at the county and city level. Each state consists of a combination of federal, state, county, and local law enforcement agencies, as well as prosecutors with different approaches to law enforcement often based on highly divergent political beliefs. Therefore, state homicide rates can be heavily influenced by a few counties, leading to skewed distributions.
Furthermore, the report criticizes a study from Third Way titled “The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem” for not updating the changes in red states and blue states based on presidential elections over the past 20 years. By holding the political categorization constant, the study fails to account for shifts in electoral sentiment. The Heritage Foundation argues that this approach is fundamentally flawed and provides an inaccurate representation of the association between political identifications and homicides.
The findings of the Heritage Foundation’s report align with a previous study released by the organization, which showed that among the 30 American cities with the highest murder rates, 27 have Democratic mayors, and at least 14 have Soros-backed prosecutors.
While Third Way defends its study by stating that data is missing or suppressed for many suburban and rural counties, making a complete county-level analysis impossible, the Heritage Foundation argues that it is necessary to consider localized crime studies to fully understand the issue.
In response to the report, a spokesperson for Governor Newsom’s office stated that Newsom has cited more localized crime studies in the past and referred to a specific interview where he did so in September.
The study by the Heritage Foundation sheds light on the localized nature of crime and challenges the prevailing narrative surrounding homicide rates in red and blue states. It emphasizes the importance of analyzing crime at the county level and considering the variation in law enforcement approaches. As the debate on crime and law enforcement continues, this report provides valuable insights that contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the issue.
