North Carolina is poised to become a crucial battleground for Democrats in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The state, which has seen narrow Republican victories in the past three elections, is increasingly “trending purple” as the population in major cities grows. This development has caught the attention of Democratic strategists, who see an opportunity to turn the tide in this swing state.
Over the years, North Carolina has witnessed closely contested elections, with presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial candidates winning by slim margins. While former President Barack Obama managed to secure North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes in 2008, Republicans carried the state in the subsequent three presidential contests. However, Democrats have enjoyed recent success in gubernatorial races.
Democratic strategist Douglas Wilson emphasized the importance of early voter engagement in North Carolina, citing Obama’s successful campaign infrastructure in the state during the 2008 primaries. Wilson expects even more attention from presidential campaigns in the Tar Heel State earlier in the 2024 cycle. The Biden campaign has already expressed its intention to invest resources in North Carolina, recognizing its competitiveness.
GOP strategist Doug Heye acknowledged that North Carolina Republicans can no longer take the electorate for granted. He pointed to the growing metropolitan areas of Charlotte and Raleigh as factors driving the state’s changing political landscape. Heye stressed that the state should not be considered a safe bet for Republicans, given the narrow margins in previous elections.
The potential hurdles for the GOP in 2024 include former President Donald Trump’s likely nomination and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s campaign for governor. Particularly concerning is the need to appeal to suburban women in Raleigh, a demographic that played a crucial role in Democrat victories in 2020 and 2022. Heye cautioned against distractions caused by controversial remarks made by Robinson, which could negatively define the race.
Republican strategist Jonathan Felts highlighted the Republicans’ ability to secure sweeping victories in North Carolina despite being outspent in the last election cycle. Looking ahead to 2024, Felts anticipates a focus on economic messaging that resonates with North Carolina working families. He believes that figures like Trump and Robinson are better positioned to make the case for being the strongest advocates for working families in comparison to Biden and likely Democrat nominee, state Attorney General Josh Stein.
Democrats also recognize the strategic importance of North Carolina’s growing Latino population. Gabe Esparza, a Democrat candidate for state treasurer, emphasized the need to secure just a few thousand more votes from this demographic to boost the party’s success. Additionally, the parties must acknowledge the significance of rural North Carolina, as it represents one of the most rural states in the country.
As the 2024 campaign trail heats up, North Carolina will undoubtedly become a focal point for both parties. With the state’s changing demographics and history of closely contested elections, it is clear that neither Democrats nor Republicans can afford to overlook North Carolina in their pursuit of the presidency.
