A new NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC national poll has found that Democrats’ advantage with Latino voters under Vice President Kamala Harris has dwindled to its lowest levels in four presidential election cycles. The VP maintains a 14-point lead over President Donald Trump, with 54% of Latino voters supporting her and 40% supporting him, while 6% remain undecided. This is a significant decline from the Democrats’ performance in recent elections, where they enjoyed a 33-point advantage in the 2020 presidential election, a 38-point edge in 2016, and a 44-point margin in 2012 among Latino voters.
Latino voters currently favor Democrats to control Congress over Republicans by a margin of 54% to 42%, which also marks a decline relative to past election cycles. On specific issues, Latinos favored Harris on treating immigrants humanely by 39 points, abortion by 34 points, having the right temperament by 28 points, representing change by 21 points, and getting the country to head in the right direction by 12 points. In contrast, they favored Trump on the economy by four points, tackling inflation by nine points, and addressing the border by 13 points.
A significant 62% of Latino voters feel that immigration helps more than it hurts, compared to 35% who feel the opposite, marking a shift from previous years when only 35% felt this way. Driving Trump’s gains among the critical voting bloc are Latino men, who were split between Republicans and Democrats at 47% apiece; this is a stark change from 2020, when Latino men favored Democrats by 54% to 34. Latinas also shifted slightly towards Trump but still favored the Democrats over Republicans 60% to 34.
Polls had generally shown warning signs for Joe Biden with minority voters prior to Kamala Harris taking over the top of the ticket in July. Despite her efforts, both Trump and Harris are set to appear in dueling town halls with the American Spanish network Univision later this month as they work to court Hispanic and Latino voters.
