The 2020 US presidential election marked a significant departure from previous electoral norms, with several major Democrat cities stopping the count of mail-in ballots at 9 PM. In Fulton County, Georgia, an alleged burst pipe led to an evacuation that halted the count temporarily. Additionally, there were instances in Detroit where ballot-counters obscured their work from observers by covering windows with cardboard. The New York Times has warned that due to increasing numbers of Americans utilizing mail-in ballots, election results could take a considerable amount of time to be determined.
As a result, it is becoming increasingly likely that there will be no clear winner on election night for the second consecutive presidential election, with early returns possibly offering a misleading impression of the ultimate victor. This shift in voting habits, as evidenced by the Election Project’s data, reveals a significant increase in mail-in ballots submitted by Democrats compared to Republicans in recent elections.
In response, the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee (RNC) have initiated a program called “Swamp the Vote,” aimed at encouraging early voting, including mail-in ballots. The campaign has also issued a memo cautioning against a “blue mirage,” which suggests that early Democratic leads in absentee and vote-by-mail are not indicative of an overall victory on November 5th.
However, this trend is expected to continue as the US gears up for the upcoming election, with two key battleground states – Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – potentially facing delays in reporting full results. In these states, Democrats have called for reforms that would allow election officials to open and flatten ballots before polls open on Election Day. Yet state lawmakers have been reluctant to make any changes.
The delays are expected to be most pronounced in the cities of Philadelphia and Milwaukee, which house a significant number of Democratic voters. These cities may require more time to count their mail-in ballots due to the sheer volume of votes received. For instance, Paulina Gutierrez, executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission, estimates that Milwaukee alone will have around 80,000 mail ballots to process – up significantly from the 30,000 received during the midterms.
The slow vote-counting process means that Wisconsin will not have full results on election night, with Milwaukee anticipated to finish counting its ballots at 3 AM or later. Similarly, potential delays in Pennsylvania are also causing concerns about premature assumptions of victory. As political science professor Michael McDonald explains, “In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that’s where we’re going to see the potential for this red mirage and the ballot dumps and all of those conspiracy theories that will arise from it.
Arizona and Nevada, two other battleground states, are also likely to face delays in reporting results, though for different reasons. Both states rely heavily on mail-in voting, which can contribute to longer processing times due to high voter turnout and the logistical challenges of counting large numbers of mail-in ballots. Nevada’s final result was not determined until four days after the 2020 election, while Arizona took nine days.
While both states allow local officials time to preprocess ballots, delays in reporting results are still expected. The potential for these delays raises concerns about the possibility of conspiracy theories and misconceptions emerging from the voting process. As Ann Jacobs, the Democratic chair of the Wisconsin Election Board, puts it, “I will prioritize the security and the integrity of the election over speed any day.
