Israeli intelligence now reportedly believes that Iran is preparing a major strike on Israel in the next few days, a significant shift from previous assessments that international pressure and US saber-rattling had persuaded Iran to leave it to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to strike Israel for blowing up Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant shared this latest assessment with US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin in a Sunday conversation, according to Axios.
Gallant told Austin that Iranian actions signify the country is readying a major strike and also informed an Israeli Defense Forces unit that Iran and Hezbollah “are threatening to harm us in a way they haven’t done in the past.” The shift in assessment reflects the ongoing debate inside the Iranian government, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) pushing for a more severe response than Iran’s previous attack on Israel. However, Iran’s new president and his advisers believe that regional escalation would not serve the country’s interests at this time.
In response to the perceived threat, the US has strengthened its force posture in the Middle East. A Pentagon spokesman said Austin assured Gallant of America’s commitment to defend Israel, mentioning the deployment of the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Central Command theater and the acceleration of the transit of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. These actions are intended to mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or its proxies.
In a similar scenario in the past, Israel bombed an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria, prompting Iran to strike back and US forces to intervene to destroy the incoming projectiles. Analysts estimated that the cost of Iran’s attack was only $80 to $100 million, while the defense mounted by the US, Israel, and its allies cost around $1 billion. This highlights the pattern of asymmetrical warfare in which Israel provokes Iran, resulting in significant financial investments from the US to protect Israel from retaliation.
