Donald Trump received an unpleasant surprise from Fox News recently, as it reported new polling data for four crucial states (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that suggest these states are too close to call, with one showing the former president losing ground. The timing of these results is not ideal for a presidential campaign, especially considering other polls which show more favorable outcomes for Trump, indicating that his case against President Biden may not translate as easily to one against Vice President Kamala Harris as GOP strategists had hoped.
In particular, the polls indicate a race slipping away from Trump’s grasp, with a common theme being a “vibe” check; in other words, battleground voters are expressing a preference for Harris over Trump at this time, and it is unclear how the Republican candidate can change that. According to the Fox News polls, no matter who is ahead or behind, Trump is underwater everywhere, while Harris isn’t.
In Michigan, which Biden won by fewer than 3 points in 2020, the Harris-Trump race is tied at 49% in a head-to-head matchup, although Trump leads 45% to 43% against Harris when including other candidates such as Robert Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West. In another positive development for Trump, he receives 17% of the black vote in Michigan, which is significantly better than the 0% he received in a recent Detroit News-WDIV-TV live-dial Michigan poll that showed a tied race.
Additionally, Trump has a plurality of independents in Michigan with 36%, which puts him more than double digits ahead of Harris and Kennedy. However, despite these positives for Trump, Harris still has a higher net favorability rating than Trump, albeit by only one point.
In Wisconsin, which was decided by less than a percentage point in the last two elections, Trump currently holds a slim 1-point lead in a binary battle and is tied with Harris in an expanded field at 46.
Harris has support from 92% of Democrats and 51% of women in the larger race. In contrast, Trump receives backing from 52% of men and 89% of Republicans, while leading by +2 among independents. Despite these numbers, Harris still boasts a better net favorability rating, with her standing at 49% approval and 49% disapproval, while Trump’s figures are 47% and 52%, respectively.
Pennsylvania, which was only a 1-point race in 2020, is now a deadlock in the two-way matchup with both candidates at 49. Although this may seem encouraging for Trump, he has reason to be concerned, as he only secures support from 85% of Republicans in an expanded field, where he trails Harris by 45% to 43.
There are also other red flags in the larger field, with Trump leading men by just 8 points and white voters by 4 points. Furthermore, Harris has a net approval rating of 49%, while Trump is 7 points below water at 46% approval and 53% disapproval.
Minnesota sees a 6-point lead for Harris in a binary battle and a 7-point lead in an expanded field where Trump manages to garner support from just 84% of Republicans, leading by only 5 points with men and white voters. In this case, Harris has a 17-point net favorability advantage over Trump.
As some Republicans try to blame the media or corrupt Democrats for changing presidential candidates before the convention, they are essentially relying on familiar scapegoats in an attempt to avoid acknowledging their own shortcomings. While these excuses may be justified, playing the excuse game more than three months before the election is less effective than coming up with a winning strategy.
The Trump campaign’s current approach seems to involve creating a “split screen all day long” between the former president and Vice President Harris on various issues, with the ultimate goal of setting the agenda and implementing it. However, this strategy appears more suited for a campaign that is comfortably ahead in key metrics rather than one struggling to maintain its footing in crucial battleground states.
There is likely still time to correct course, but only if there is enough interest and willingness to make the necessary changes.
