The EU, NATO, and numerous European capitals are watching with growing alarm as France’s political turmoil unfolds. President Emmanuel Macron has called for early elections, leaving a path open for the French ‘far-right’ to potentially triumph. Foreign policy establishments in both Europe and Washington are concerned that joint initiatives such as increased military spending and funding Ukraine’s defense for years to come may be at risk due to Macron’s uncertain political future.
Macron had long become among Kiev’s top cheerleaders, even recently unveiling a plan to send French and NATO military trainers to Ukraine. However, given that the plan was not officially launched by NATO leadership, Macron is seen as the prime mover behind this European initiative.
However, France’s surprise political leader, Marine Le Pen – who dominated president Macron in the European Parliament elections – is reaching out to mainstream voters as she aims to cement a majority in the next parliament. This result would constitute an earthquake in European politics. Her group, the National Rally, is already on track to become the largest party in the lower house, a prospect which has caused alarm among investors, the national security establishment, France’s international partners, and a section of the French public.
Macron acknowledged that he was hurt by his party’s defeat in the European Parliament elections and said the country would have been in “chaos” without his call for snap legislative elections. With the National Rally expected to make significant parliamentary gains, it is crucial to understand its stance on the Russia-Ukraine policy and what Jordan Bardella, who could become French PM at a young age of 28, envisions for the issue.
The ‘controversial’ and supposedly ‘Russia-sympathetic’ stance can be seen in some quietly removed sections of defense policy that had been on the National Rally’s website prior to June 11. These sections called for deepening diplomatic ties with Moscow, and for France to exit NATO’s integrated military command. The deleted proposals hailed from Marine Le Pen’s presidential run in 2022, in which her party had laid out 17 thematic booklets outlining its proposals across all policy areas. While 16 booklets remain online, the one on defense was removed from the web page some time after June 11 and can still be found at a separate page not linked to the party’s website.
In the manifesto, the National Rally had advocated for distance from Washington while trying to engage with Moscow. Noting that Washington “does not always behave as an ally to France,” Le Pen’s program in 2022 proposed to seek “an alliance with Russia on certain issues,” such as European security or combating terrorism.
Columnist and political cartoonist Ted Rall told Russia’s Sputnik early this week that the shift to the right is in part a reaction against Macron’s ratcheting Ukraine policies, reflecting the reality that “The French don’t have an appetite for conscription or even for wars of choice.
Rall explained that the shift to the right is in part a reaction against Macron’s ratcheting Ukraine policies and reflects the fact that “The French don’t have an appetite for conscription or even for wars of choice.” He further elaborated, “They haven’t been engaged in [a war] in a long, long time. Ukraine’s a hot war. It’s a real war. It’s not like a police action, like going to quell the natives in New Caledonia. This is real serious. Frenchmen will be coming back in body bags from Ukraine.
And it’s a conflict that a lot of French people are deeply divided about. The politics are bad for Macron,” he continued. I don’t know why he’s absolutely so determined to push this narrative because truly he and his administration and his legacy are really on the ropes right now.
