Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has received some encouraging news with a new poll revealing he holds a double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in a state that Democrats are trying desperately to flip, Texas. In the 2020 election, Trump secured a narrow victory against Biden by about 5.5 points in this deeply red state. However, according to a Marist College survey released on Tuesday, among registered voters, the former president now leads his successor by an impressive 11 points (55%–44.
While Trump’s advantage decreases slightly when considering those who say they will definitely vote in November’s election, it remains significant at 7 points (53%–46. The same poll also highlights that independent voters, a demographic that Biden won by six percentage points in 2020, now favor Trump. In fact, the survey indicates that Trump receives the support of 56% of Texas independents while Biden secures just 41.
In addition to these promising numbers for the former president, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is currently leading his Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred, by six points in a crucial Senate contest. Democrats are investing heavily in this race as they hope to gain the majority in the chamber during November’s elections. Cruz, a conservative firebrand seeking a third six-year term in the Senate, leads Allred 51% to 45% among registered voters.
Among likely voters, Cruz holds an almost identical lead over Allred. The same poll found that independent voters also favor Cruz, who boasts 50% support compared to Allred’s 42. However, there is a significant gender gap in the race, with Cruz carrying men by 21 percentage points (59%) and trailing slightly among women (Allred: 52%, Cruz: 44.
Despite this lead for Cruz, Allred remains largely unknown to voters, even though Cruz has a 45%–43% favorable/unfavorable rating in the most recent poll. In fact, 53% of those surveyed claimed not to have heard of Allred at all or that they didn’t know enough about him to respond to the question.
Polling has not been favorable for President Joe Biden this month. A separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll revealed that Trump held a lead over Biden by two percentage points, drawing a near-tie in a highly volatile electorate as the candidates get underway. Nearly one in four surveyed said they might change their minds before November, and this sentiment was bipartisan, with 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters expressing uncertainty about their current choice.
The outlet added that most of those now supporting a third-party candidate said they were open to changing their minds, among them 75% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters and 94% of Jill Stein supporters. This indicates the potential erosion that independent candidates often see as Election Day nears, while also providing an opportunity for each major-party candidate to make their case to voters who are now reluctant to support them and convince those voters that it would be dangerous or unwise to back the other party’s nominee.
The polling also highlighted concerns about immigration (24%) and challenges to democracy (23%), which trailed closely behind voters’ rankings of inflation and the economy, which accounted for 29% of their vote. Abortion was the only other topic to reach double digits, coming in at 10.
In addition to his strong showing in Texas, Trump is also making a play for traditionally deep blue enclaves like New York. He held a rally in the Bronx recently, drawing a sizable crowd and generating attention from political observers and commentators alike.
