In a recent national poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, President Joe Biden holds a six-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a likely November election rematch. However, the poll also indicates that Biden’s advantage over Trump decreases when other candidates are added to the mix, including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The survey, conducted from January 25-29, shows Biden leading Trump 50%-44% among registered voters nationwide, a significant increase from the razor-thin one-point edge in Quinnipiac’s December survey. However, when considering a multi-candidate general election field, Biden’s lead shrinks. In this scenario, the poll indicates Biden at 39%, Trump at 37%, Kennedy Jr. at 14%, progressive independent candidate Cornell West at 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%.
Interestingly, the poll also highlights a widening gender gap, with women backing Biden 58%-36%, up 10 points from December, while men continue to support Trump with a margin of 53%-42%. This shift in female support has contributed to Biden’s edge over Trump in recent weeks.
Among party lines, Biden enjoys a 96%-2% margin among Democrats and a 52%-40% advantage among independents. Trump, on the other hand, has 91%-7% support among Republicans. The survey also suggests that Biden is the overwhelming favorite among Democrats to win the presidential nomination, while Trump leads the race among Republicans.
The poll also explores hypothetical November showdowns between Biden and other candidates. Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley tops Biden by five points in a two-person matchup, with Haley at 47% and Biden at 42%. However, in a five-candidate field, Biden stands at 36%, with Haley at 29%, Kennedy Jr. at 21%, West at 3%, and Stein at 2%.
Haley, who argues that she would be a stronger GOP presidential nominee than Trump, faces a steep uphill climb for the nomination as the race moves to her home state of South Carolina, which holds the next major contest in the GOP schedule on February 24. The poll indicates that Trump leads Haley 77%-21% nationwide among GOP and Republican-leaning voters.
In the Democratic presidential primary race, Biden maintains a strong lead with 78% support, followed by author Marianne Williamson at 11% and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota at 6%.
It is important to note that polling data can fluctuate and should be interpreted with caution. The Quinnipiac poll questioned 1,650 self-described registered voters nationwide, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
As the 2024 campaign trail continues, these poll results provide valuable insights into the current state of the race and the potential matchups between candidates. Stay tuned for the latest updates, exclusive interviews, and more at our Digital Election Hub.
