Resistance to further aid for Kyiv is growing ahead of a crucial meeting among European Union leaders. The meeting will focus on the second attempt at passing a 50-billion-euro ($54bn) amendment to the EU budget that aims to help finance Ukraine over the next four years. However, this amendment was vetoed by Hungary at a previous summit, along with 20 billion euros ($21.7bn) in military aid for Ukraine in 2024. The European Commission is now hoping to bring Hungary on board by offering Prime Minister Viktor Orban the opportunity to block the continuation of support next year if Ukraine is deemed no longer in need of the funds.
EU support has been crucial for Ukraine’s war effort, with the bloc already providing over 40 billion euros ($43bn) to support Ukraine’s budget and 27 billion euros ($29bn) in military aid since the war began almost two years ago. Additionally, the EU has allocated 17 billion euros ($18.4bn) to support Ukrainian refugees in Europe. However, Ukraine’s budget is currently facing a $48 billion shortfall.
There are different approaches being considered to address the resistance to aid. The European Parliament has condemned Hungary’s veto and called for an investigation into the country’s breaches of EU values. The European Council of EU government leaders could potentially suspend Hungary’s voting rights and veto power through a process known as Article 7. However, unanimity among member states is required for this to happen, and Poland, which has supported Hungary in the past, is unlikely to support it.
Other options include providing aid through a special vehicle outside the regular budget or allowing member states to provide bilateral assistance to Ukraine. However, these approaches are more expensive and weaken the EU’s unified foreign policy stance. Moreover, they fail to address the problems within Hungary itself, which has faced suspension of EU aid for manipulating the judiciary and suppressing free speech and minority rights.
Furthermore, there is a growing sentiment within the EU that Ukraine should negotiate peace with Russia instead of relying on continued support. This sentiment is fueled by changing trends, as other existential fears such as climate change, pandemics, and immigration take precedence over Ukraine in European countries. Politicians like Viktor Orban, Robert Fico, and Gert Wilders have positioned themselves as peacemakers and have advocated for a partitioning of Ukraine rather than a fight to regain all its lands.
Hungary’s opposition to aid for Ukraine is not solely driven by political motives but also economic interests. The country has been actively seeking Chinese and Russian investment and has successfully positioned itself as a recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment. Hungary’s relationship with Russia is also reflected in its exemption from a ban on Russian oil imports, along with other landlocked EU members. This has led some to view Hungary and other countries in this group as serving Russian interests within the EU and NATO.
Overall, the resistance to aid for Ukraine highlights the complexities within the EU and the shifting geopolitical landscape. The meeting among EU leaders will play a crucial role in determining the future of support for Ukraine and the EU’s stance on authoritarian populist leaders. The outcome will have implications not only for Ukraine’s war effort but also for the EU’s unity and credibility in foreign policy matters.
