Turmoil within China’s senior military ranks has sparked speculation about the country’s ability to pose a threat to Taiwan. Recent removals of high-ranking military officers, including those from the elite “rocket force,” have raised concerns about the Chinese armed forces’ preparedness for a large-scale assault on Taiwan. This uncertainty has led some to believe that the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the near term has been reduced.
China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control. However, the removal of senior officers is seen as a sign of President Xi Jinping’s lack of confidence in the military. This has created doubts about China’s ability to carry out complex planning for an invasion of Taiwan.
While this may bring a sense of security to the people of Taiwan, experts emphasize that Beijing’s long-term goal of annexing Taiwan remains unchanged. China’s new defense minister, Dong Jun, who has experience with military matters regarding Taiwan, is seen as a reflection of Beijing’s ambition to become a maritime power that can rival the United States and eventually annex Taiwan.
China has been increasing its projection of maritime and air power towards Taiwan in recent years. Airborne and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s space have become a daily occurrence, accompanied by sabre-rattling rhetoric and large-scale military drills. Beijing’s pressure campaign directed at Taiwan is expected to continue despite the dismissals in the Chinese military ranks.
The removal of Chinese military officials is seen as part of President Xi’s efforts to strengthen his hold over the military and secure loyalty within the state. Observers describe it as one of the biggest purges in Chinese military history. The use of fear as a tool to secure loyalty is not uncommon in China’s authoritarian state structure, particularly in the absence of oversight and transparency.
However, while these purges may strengthen President Xi’s hold on power, they may also have a lingering impact on the Chinese military’s capabilities. The continuous process of purging within the military could result in a lack of experienced generals, making it difficult to fight a war effectively.
In Taiwan, the military drills on “red beaches” serve as a reminder of the ever-present threat of a Chinese invasion. Despite hoping for peace, some Taiwanese citizens believe that the purges within the Chinese military should continue if it means avoiding a war.
In conclusion, the turmoil within China’s military ranks raises questions about its ability to pose a significant threat to Taiwan. While the likelihood of an immediate conflict may have been reduced, Beijing’s long-term goal of annexing Taiwan remains unchanged. The continuous purges within the Chinese military could have a lasting impact on its capabilities. Taiwanese citizens hope for peace but recognize the importance of remaining vigilant.
