Three Royal Navy frigates have been deployed to the Red Sea region, marking the United Kingdom’s largest military footprint since the Cold War. As a staunch ally of Ukraine, the UK has been vocal in opposing Russian aggression and has taken the lead in providing tanks and long-range missiles to Ukraine. Additionally, the UK has significantly increased its military profile on the global stage by participating in a multinational naval force aimed at neutralizing the threat posed by Yemen-based Houthis to international shipping.
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps emphasized the country’s commitment to maintaining regional stability, stating, “We’ve been at the forefront of global responses.” In recent months, the UK has demonstrated its readiness to respond to crises, such as sending a Royal Navy task group, marines, and surveillance planes to Israel following an attack by the Palestinian group Hamas. Furthermore, the UK joined the US in leading the multinational Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea after the Houthis targeted HMS Diamond and US Navy vessels with drones and missiles.
The UK’s military actions have already yielded positive results in curbing the Houthis’ ability to threaten merchant shipping. The Ministry of Defence reported that the recent strikes on Houthi military sites have dealt a blow to their capabilities. As a result, the UK’s military presence has become increasingly significant and its defense budget is set to rise to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), with Defence Secretary Shapps urging other NATO allies to follow suit.
The Red Sea operation is primarily driven by the need to protect global trade, as approximately 15% of the world’s marine traffic passes through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and, ultimately, Europe through the Suez Canal. The disruption caused by recent attacks on ships has prompted shipping companies to divert their vessels around Africa, leading to extended shipping times, increased costs, and potential price inflation for manufactured products from China bound for the European market. Additionally, oil tankers transporting Middle Eastern oil to European refineries have been significantly affected.
While the UK has taken a proactive stance in the Red Sea region, not all European countries share the same approach. Italy, for instance, has emphasized the need for parliamentary approval before engaging in military action, while France and Spain are cautious about resorting to force due to the risk of escalation. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto expressed concerns about opening another front of war amidst ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, urging Ukraine to pursue negotiations with Russia.
The risk of escalation is indeed present, given that both Hamas and the Houthis receive support from Iran. Lebanon-based Hezbollah has also threatened to attack Israel, further complicating the situation. Iran’s direct involvement in the conflict cannot be ruled out, as evidenced by its recent seizure of an oil-filled tanker in retaliation for the confiscation of an Iranian oil cargo by US authorities. The military challenges posed by these actors, including the Israeli army’s ongoing fight against Hamas and Hezbollah’s substantial rocket arsenal, highlight the potential for an escalated conflict.
Despite the risks, the UK has concluded that a proactive defense strategy is crucial in deterring future hostilities by other actors. Defence Secretary Shapps declared that the era of the peace dividend is over, emphasizing the need to be prepared for potential conflicts involving Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. In line with this stance, the UK is set to deploy its highest number of land forces overseas in 40 years, with approximately 36,000 soldiers.
The British government’s decision to assume a prominent role in the Red Sea conflict may also be influenced by other factors. One possible motive is maintaining the UK’s status as a great power in the Middle East, as it seeks to monitor and influence events in a region it is familiar with. Additionally, the governing Conservative party faces an upcoming general election, and the UK’s forceful stance in Ukraine has garnered popularity. Whether the UK’s actions in the Red Sea will receive similar support remains to be seen.
In conclusion, the UK’s decision to increase its military presence in the Red Sea region serves as a significant response to the threats posed by the Houthis and the disruption of global trade. As an ally of Ukraine, the UK is determined to counter Russian aggression and promote regional stability. However, the situation remains complex, with the risk of escalation and the involvement of Iran and other regional actors. The UK’s actions also reflect its desire to maintain its status as a global power and potentially gain public support ahead of an upcoming election.
