Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has expressed her continued support for former President Trump ahead of the Iowa caucuses. As caucus day arrives in Iowa, all signs point to a decisive win for Trump, who has consistently been the frontrunner in surveys. However, the contest is not without significance, as the candidate who comes in second may be the only one with a chance at competing with Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are the best positioned to secure the second-place spot, with recent surveys showing them closely trailing behind Trump.
For an early indication of the statewide result, attention should be given to the returns from specific counties. Trump has a strong connection with voters across rural areas in the Hawkeye State, particularly among low-income, non-college-educated, and evangelical voters. Iowa’s numerous sparsely populated rural zones, with 48 out of the state’s 99 counties having fewer than 15,000 residents, collectively form a powerful voting bloc. Trump will aim to maximize his margins in these counties, where he had lower vote shares in 2016 but is expected to perform better this time around.
Nikki Haley, running a different campaign to Trump’s, appeals more to non-Trump and/or pro-establishment GOP voters, particularly on foreign policy and spending. Her success on caucus night will depend on collecting as many raw votes as possible in highly populated cities. Marco Rubio’s performance in 2016, capturing 23% of the overall statewide vote with strong support from urban counties, serves as an ideal benchmark for Haley.
Ron DeSantis, on the other hand, has been focusing on appealing to White evangelical voters by highlighting his record on issues like abortion and transgender surgery. While Trump remains the top choice for a majority of evangelicals, DeSantis is the next best candidate, with 22% of the evangelical vote. To assess DeSantis’s performance with this group on caucus night, attention should be given to four counties in the northwestern corner of the state, known for their high percentage of White Christian populations.
Additionally, Calhoun County, with its population of just 9,725, could serve as an indicator of the statewide result. In the 2016 election, the preferences of Calhoun County voters closely matched those of the entire state. This time around, Calhoun County’s results will be closely watched to gauge its accuracy as a leading indicator.
As the caucuses convene at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. in Iowa), speeches from the campaigns and other formalities are expected to delay the availability of the first results. Exclusive insights from Voter Analysis and the Decision Desk, which will call the race, can be expected throughout the evening. Special coverage with Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum will begin at 10 p.m. ET.
In summary, while Trump is expected to secure a decisive win in the Iowa caucuses, the race for second place remains highly competitive between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. The results from specific counties, particularly rural areas and highly populated cities, will provide valuable insights into the candidates’ performances. Calhoun County, with its historical accuracy in reflecting the statewide result, will also be closely monitored.
