The recent attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea have had a significant impact on the group’s domestic recruitment and mobilization efforts in Yemen. Analysts suggest that these attacks have provided a much-needed boost to the Houthis’ popularity after a period of decline. However, there are concerns that their domestic moves could undermine the fragile peace talks aiming to establish a ceasefire in the decade-long war in Yemen.
The Houthis claim that their attacks in the Red Sea target Israeli-connected or allied ships as a way to pressure Israel into ending its war on Gaza. This message seems to resonate with many Yemenis, as millions of them joined a rally in support of Gaza organized by the Houthis in the capital city, Sanaa. The event saw protesters carrying Palestinian and Yemeni flags, demonstrating the strong solidarity between the two causes. Meanwhile, the Houthis continued to launch missiles and drones into the Red Sea, defying threats of military action from the United States.
The heightened tensions in the Red Sea have led international shipping companies to avoid the region, choosing instead to take longer routes around the southern coast of Africa. This decision adds approximately nine days to their journey and increases costs by at least 15 percent. Danish shipping giant Maersk announced that it would avoid the Red Sea for the foreseeable future. In response to the Houthi attacks, the United States formed a 10-country coalition called Operation Prosperity Guardian, aimed at preventing the Houthis from targeting commercial ships in the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
Despite these efforts, the Houthis have persisted in their attacks on commercial traffic in the Red Sea. In response, the US and its allies issued a final warning to the Houthis to cease their attacks. However, the Houthis appeared defiant during the rally in Sanaa, with fighter planes flying overhead and leaders declaring their preparedness for a military escalation from the US. Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House, noted that the Houthis seem immune to Western and US pressure.
Prior to their attacks on ships in the Red Sea, the Houthis had faced challenges in paying salaries and attracting new recruits. However, their actions have resulted in a spike in recruitment, as many young Yemenis eagerly enlist to fight for the Palestinian cause. The group recently graduated over 20,000 new fighters, named after Hamas’s October 7 mission, Al-Aqsa Flood. Eleonora Ardemagni, a senior associate research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, suggests that these attacks divert attention from the social and economic failures under Houthi rule in Yemen, ultimately bolstering their internal support.
The ongoing war in Yemen, backed by a Saudi-led coalition supporting the internationally recognized government, has dampened enthusiasm for the Houthis. However, a truce went into effect in October 2022, and ceasefire talks have shown progress, with the United Nations announcing an end to hostilities in sight. Despite this, analysts remain concerned that the recent actions of the Houthis could derail a final deal. The group’s potential launch of a new offensive within Yemen poses a significant threat to the ceasefire. Recent deployments of 50,000 troops around Marib have sparked fears of renewed hostilities.
The relative period of calm in Yemen may soon come to an end as the Houthis position themselves for possible confrontations on both domestic and regional fronts. Analysts warn that a military escalation from the US could trigger a more aggressive response from the Houthis, leading to the unraveling of the fragile ceasefire conditions. The future of peace in Yemen hangs in the balance, with the Houthis’ actions posing a significant challenge to the ongoing peace talks and the stability of the region.
