In a shocking announcement that sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia declared that he will not be seeking re-election to the United States Senate. This decision dealt a major blow to Senate Democrats’ hopes of maintaining their razor-thin majority in the 2024 elections. Manchin, a moderate Democrat and former governor, won his 2012 re-election by over 60% of the vote, but his margin of victory dwindled to just three points in 2018.
The significance of Manchin’s retirement lies in the fact that West Virginia has shifted dramatically to the right in recent years. In the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump won the state by nearly 40 points. With Republicans eyeing a favorable Senate map in 2024, where Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs, Manchin’s departure opens up an opportunity for the GOP to regain control of the Senate.
However, Democrats remain optimistic about their chances of protecting and strengthening their Senate majority. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman, David Bergstein, argued that Democrats have multiple pathways to achieve this goal. In addition to defending their incumbents, they have expanded the battleground map to include traditionally Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, where popular Republican incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are seeking re-election.
The focus now shifts to the Republican Senate primary in West Virginia, where popular Democrat-turned-Republican Governor Jim Justice has gained the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and former President Trump. With Manchin out of the race, the NRSC chairman, Senator Steve Daines, expressed confidence in their prospects in West Virginia.
Similarly, in Montana, Democratic Senator Jon Tester’s announcement that he will seek re-election in 2024 gave Democrats a sigh of relief. Trump won Montana by 16 points in 2016, making it a challenging battleground for Democrats. However, Tester has proven his fundraising prowess and remains a formidable candidate.
In Ohio, longtime Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown faces a tough battle for a fourth six-year term. The state, once a premier general election battleground, has shifted towards the Republican Party in recent years. Trump carried Ohio by eight points in both his 2016 and 2020 elections. Brown, known as a champion for populist causes, enjoys widespread recognition and support across the state.
The Senate race in battleground Arizona promises to be one of the most complicated of the 2024 cycle. Democrat-turned-independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema is expected to run for re-election, although she has not made an official announcement. Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego has already entered the race on the left and has raised more funds than Sinema. On the Republican side, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and former TV news anchor Kari Lake are among the major contenders.
Lastly, Pennsylvania is set to host one of the most competitive and expensive Senate races in 2024. Democratic Senator Bob Casey, seeking a fourth six-year term, is expected to face little primary opposition. Republicans have endorsed Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive and Treasury Department official, who narrowly lost the nomination last year.
As the 2024 campaign trail heats up, these Senate races will be closely watched as they could determine the balance of power in the Senate. With Republicans eyeing opportunities to flip seats in traditionally Democratic strongholds, and Democrats working to hold onto their slim majority, the stakes are high for both parties. Stay tuned for the latest updates, exclusive interviews, and more in our 2024 election coverage.
