A recent poll conducted by the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics reveals that independent candidates are drawing more young voters away from Democrats than Republicans for the upcoming 2024 election. While President Biden maintains a solid lead against former President Trump in a hypothetical matchup, independent candidates pose a significant threat to Biden’s support base.
According to the poll, young voters aged 18 to 29 favor Biden over Trump for the 2024 presidential election by a margin of 41% to 30%. However, it is worth noting that 69% of young voters who support Biden are driven more by opposition to Trump’s potential return to the presidency rather than support for Biden and his policies.
On the other hand, approximately 65% of young voters who prefer Trump are in direct support of the former president and his policies. However, when considering independent candidates declared in the 2024 election, Biden’s lead over Trump narrows significantly. In a five-way contest that includes independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornell West, and Joe Manchin, young voters still favor Biden with 29%, followed by Trump at 25%, Kennedy at 10%, West at 3%, and Manchin at 2%.
It is worth noting that approximately 31% of young voters responded with uncertainty, stating that they do not know who they would vote for in this scenario. The inclusion of independent candidate Kennedy in the race has sparked speculation about whether he could potentially “spoil” the race for either Biden or Trump.
The poll surveyed 2,098 U.S. citizens between the ages of 18 and 29 and was conducted from October 23 to November 6. The results indicate that independent candidates have the potential to significantly impact the 2024 election, particularly among young voters who seek alternatives to the two major parties.
