In the battleground state of Wisconsin, Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a 4-point advantage over former President Donald Trump, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll conducted before Tuesday’s contentious debate. This change is attributed in part to voters’ religious affiliations, with Christians backing Trump and atheists, agnostics, and others from different faith traditions supporting Harris.
The poll’s two-way ballot test reveals that 82% of likely voters who say they have “no religion” support Harris, while only 17% back Trump. Among respondents who identify as something other than Protestant or Catholic, 55% support the vice president, and 30% support the former president.
However, when it comes to those who embrace Christianity, the numbers are reversed: 75% of born-again Christians support Trump in the binary battle, while 54% of Catholics say the same thing. Mainline Protestants are split, with both Trump and Harris receiving 46% support from this group.
Church attendance is also a strong indicator of support for Trump, with 63% of those who show up more than once a week backing him, as well as 55% of weekly attendees and 67% of those who attend up to twice a month. Among those who never go to church, 72% back the Democratic nominee.
The religious data underscore a race that is marginally tipping Harris’ way, at least according to this survey. In July, the polling group had both candidates essentially tied. Now, Harris is the choice of 52% compared with 48% for Trump among likely and registered voters.
The vice president’s lead comes as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has filed another legal challenge in an attempt to remove his name from the Wisconsin ballot, garnered a neat 6% of the vote among registered voters when all candidates were added to the polling, bringing Harris down to 47% and Trump down to 43.
Regardless of religion, Democrats are more likely to say they’re “very enthusiastic,” with 72% making that claim compared with 63% of Republicans. If Trump wants to make inroads in the Dairy State, economic messaging may be the key.
Independent voters put the economy at the top of most important issues this election, followed by Medicare and Social Security. For Republicans, the economy and immigration are still the most important determinants of their vote, while other issues rank much lower. Overall, 41% of voters surveyed ranked the economy as the most important issue, with abortion ranking second at 15%, and immigration and border security following closely behind at 12.
Despite these shifts in favorability, both candidates are underwater in terms of their overall approval ratings. Harris is at 47% approval and 51% disapproval, while Trump fares worse, with a 43% approval rating against a 56% disapproval rating. The Marquette Law School poll surveyed 738 likely voters from August 28 to September 5, with a +/-4.7 margin of error, indicating that despite Harris’ edge, Trump is still in the game.
