A new poll conducted by AARP has Democrats on edge as it reveals that Montana’s incumbent Democratic senator, Jon Tester, is lagging behind his Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, by a significant margin of 8 points with only two months remaining until Election Day. The results of the poll show that 49% of Montana voters support Sheehy, while just 41% back Tester. The Libertarian candidate garners 4%, and the Green Party, 1.
This development could have a significant impact on Democrats’ chances of maintaining control of the United States Senate in 2025. The party currently holds 23 Senate seats compared to the Republicans’ 11, but the GOP needs to flip only two seats to regain control of the upper chamber. One such seat may already be within their grasp, as West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, a former Democrat turned Republican, has a substantial 34-point lead in the race for retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin’s seat.
Sheehy’s support is particularly strong among voters over the age of 49, who favor him by a significant margin of 16 points. This demographic is also the most likely to vote, with 92% describing themselves as “extremely motivated” to cast their ballots, compared to just 77% of voters aged 18-49. Despite a substantial financial advantage for the Democrats, who have spent $128 million on the race compared to the GOP’s $109 million, Sheehy appears poised to outperform expectations.
The shift in Montana’s status from a “toss-up” to a “leans Republican” has bolstered Republican strategists, who believe that Sheehy may perform even better than current polling suggests. NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman remarked to Axios that the strength of Sheehy’s numbers is unlike anything they have seen in recent years.
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has acknowledged the unfavorable odds for Tester, noting that he is one of a small number of partisan outliers holding seats that were won by the other party in the most recent presidential election. The Democrats’ path to retaining their hold on the Senate appears increasingly narrow, with only Ohio remaining as a toss-up race, where incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown faces Trump-backed candidate Bernie Moreno.
The center’s Kyle Kondik writes that if Tester loses his seat, “Democrats will have no path to win the Senate majority unless they can somehow put a currently Republican-held seat in play.” Democrats are now considering a more aggressive push to challenge Texas Senator Ted Cruz or Florida Senator Rick Scott, whose races are both rated as “Likely Republican.
As it stands, Republicans appear to be the clear favorites to flip control of the Senate this November. The shift in Montana’s status leaves Ohio as the only remaining toss-up race, with Democrats on the defensive in the face of Trump-backed candidate Bernie Moreno’s bid for incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s seat.
