Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually tied in Pennsylvania and Georgia — the two states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election, according to a poll released Wednesday by CNN/SSRS. The survey of likely voters shows Trump and Harris each receiving 47% support in Pennsylvania, while the veep leads the 45th president 48%-47% in Georgia.
Pennsylvania has 35 electoral votes at stake, making a sweep of both states — which went for President Biden in 2020 — potentially decisive given the closeness of the race. Biden won the Keystone State by just 1.2% four years ago and secured the Peach State by an even narrower margin of 0.23.
Elsewhere in the election battleground, Harris leads Trump in Michigan (48%-43%) and Wisconsin (50%-44%), a gap that is outside the poll’s margin of error in both states. The Michigan survey found that 4% of likely voters would support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump last month, but has had difficulty removing his name from the Wolverine State’s ballot.
Trump leads Harris outside the margin of error in Arizona, with 49% of likely voters supporting the Republican and 44% backing the Democrat. In Nevada, Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump, 48%-47.
The poll was taken following last month’s Democratic National Convention, seen by many as Harris’ first major opportunity to introduce herself to voters — and the results indicate that the vice president didn’t make enough of an impression to take a clear lead over her rival in the crucial states.
Harris’ debate with Trump, scheduled for Sept. 10 in Philadelphia, is the next major opportunity for either candidate to pull away in the race.
The CNN/SSRS poll shows that between 11% and 15% of likely voters, depending on the state, said they were open to changing their mind about their choice of candidate.
Republican groups are intending to spend more than $110 million on advertising in Pennsylvania and Georgia through the end of this year, more than in any other battleground state, according to a CNN ad spending analysis.
The Trump team is optimistic about their chances in Pennsylvania and Georgia, campaign adviser Brian Hughes told The Post. In Pennsylvania and Georgia, we see polling averages showing President Trump leading close races in both. On the ground we feel a strong momentum building for the final stretch. With the GOP unified behind President Trump, and a broadening coalition of Democrats and Independents joining us, it’s clear that we are poised to win these crucial battleground states,” Hughes said.
The CNN/SSRS poll was conducted Aug. 23-29 online and via telephone. The sample sizes ranged from 676 likely voters in Arizona with a margin of error of 4.7%; 615 in Georgia with margin of error of 4.7%; 694 in Michigan with margin of error of 4.9; 613 in Nevada with margin of error of 4.9%, 777 in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of 4.7%, and 967 in Wisconsin with a margin of error of 4.4.
