The decision made by the Wisconsin Election Commission to keep Robert F. Kennedy Jr on the state’s ballot has been criticized as being more partisan than legally justified. Democratic Elections Commission Chair Ann Jacobs insisted RFK Jr remain on the ballot, even though he had requested his name be removed. This decision was made immediately after she proposed removing all ballot-qualified third parties from the state’s election based on her reading of Wisconsin and Democratic National Committee law.
The reason for this move is believed to stem from the fact that Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate who secured 30,000 votes in Wisconsin in 2016, has been blamed for Hillary Clinton’s loss. In August, Stein’s polling showed her capturing merely 1% of the vote in Wisconsin—enough to potentially sway the results of the presidential election in the state. In contrast, Kennedy’s polling reached a massive 8% in one state-wide survey.
Speculation has arisen over how RFK Jr.’s supporters will ultimately impact Trump’s chances of success in the state during this election season. For example, some argue that Kennedy’s supporters may lean towards voting for Trump after anti-vax advocates backed the former president. Furthermore, when third-party candidates are added to polling in Wisconsin, Trump typically drops two percentage points behind Harris in a battle where the margin is often less than 1.
The exact impact RFK Jr.’s supporters will have on Trump’s fortunes at the ballot box remains uncertain. However, some of RFK Jr.’s supporters have shared their voting plans with The Post. For instance, S.M., a college student in Milwaukee who does not usually vote Democrat, expressed her disappointment with the Democratic Party and indicated that she may vote for Trump due to her admiration for Kennedy’s ideas and message.
Dr. Tamika Johnson, an educator from Milwaukee, also initially planned to vote for Kennedy but changed her mind after RFK Jr. endorsed Trump and ended his own presidential bid. She now plans to vote for the Libertarian Party. Meanwhile, Ericka, a 38-year-old artist and property investor, intends to vote for Kennedy in November, citing her support for the “We The People” party and its focus on children’s health, the chronic disease epidemic, free speech, and the environment.
Joe Handrick, an election analyst who closely monitors Wisconsin’s election data, believes Trump may receive a small but potentially significant boost from RFK Jr.’s supporters in the state. According to his estimates, with Kennedy on the ballot, approximately half of the environmental lawyer’s supporters would still vote for him rather than the two main party candidates. Handrick suggests that Trump might receive 60% of Kennedy’s leftover vote compared to Harris’ 40.
Taking into account current polling averages in Wisconsin, this would give a slim advantage to Harris by 1.4%, which aligns with the RealClearPolitics polling average for the latter half of August. As the election season progresses and more data becomes available, it will be interesting to see how RFK Jr.’s presence on the ballot ultimately influences the presidential race in Wisconsin.
