Wisconsin’s significance as a crucial swing state became apparent in the last two presidential elections. The WOW (Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha) suburban counties around Milwaukee regularly provide the most significant single group of votes for Republican candidates. However, President Trump experienced a decline in these areas compared to the pre-2016 Republican norms, leading him to lose the state in 2020.
In 2012, Mitt Romney won Ozaukee County by 31 points and secured Waukesha by 34 points. In contrast, Trump’s winning margins were much lower in 2016 at 19 points for Ozaukee and 27 in Waukesha. His losses escalated further in the 2020 election when his vote share dropped to 21 points in Waukesha and only 12 points in Ozaukee, ultimately losing Wisconsin.
Trump’s performance has similarly decreased in high-income, highly educated ZIP codes across the United States. In the WOW zone, half the residents of both counties possess at least a college degree and rank among the highest for median household income. This demographic group largely shifted its support towards Trump from Romney, as evident by the Republican candidate carrying the rural eastern part of the state or Outagamie, Racine, and Kenosha counties in 2016 and 2020 elections.
Despite this apparent trend, Trump’s overall performance in these regions may not be sufficient to secure a victory for him in Wisconsin. Democrats are likely to focus on increasing turnout within their base areas. These include Milwaukee and other counties dominated by racial minorities, union voters, or university and government employees.
The Harris-Walz campaign is expected to concentrate its efforts on raising awareness of abortion rights, particularly among the state’s white college student population. A similar initiative was launched in Madison during the 2020 election, resulting in a significantly higher turnout compared to the rest of the state and significantly contributed to President Biden’s narrow win.
This situation presents two potential paths for Trump’s campaign: either increase his vote share among ethnic minorities or reduce his losses over time with educated whites. Currently, Trump seems to be gaining some ground in terms of support from non-white voters. However, this may not be enough to offset the higher turnout of Democrats in their base areas.
Trump will need to devise a strategy that can halt the leftward drift of college-educated whites and stop them from continuing to abandon the Republican Party. He must also focus on maintaining or improving his vote share among non-whites. A recent Marquette Law School poll indicated that the economy and immigration policy were crucial issues for this demographic group.
Ultimately, Trump’s ability to win back Wisconsin and secure re-election hinges on his capacity to address these critical concerns. While it is an uphill battle, success in Wisconsin could be the key to his return to the Oval Office.
