Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are currently in close races across the Sunbelt, according to recent polls. In Arizona, Harris is leading Trump by five points with 50% support to his 45. In North Carolina, she has a slim two-point lead over Trump, with 49% to his 47. These results are particularly concerning for Republicans as Trump carried North Carolina in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Arizona and North Carolina were considered increasingly favorable for Trump during polls conducted when President Joe Biden was leading the Democratic ticket. The survey, conducted by New York Times/Siena College, interviewed 677 registered voters in Arizona between August 8th and August 15th; 661 voters in Georgia from August 9th to August 14th; 655 in North Carolina during the same period; and 677 in Nevada from August 12th to August 15th.
Despite the close races, Trump did see some positive results in the poll. In Georgia, which he lost in 2020, Trump led Harris by four points with 50% support compared to her 46. In Nevada, a state that Trump lost in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, he also had a lead over Harris, albeit by only one point, with 48% support to her 47.
The survey also found that 43% of voters viewed Vice President Harris as “too liberal or progressive,” while only 33% of voters believed Trump was “too conservative.” Pollster Carly Cooperman told The Post, “It’s a whole new electoral map. I would say that these races are close, she is not definitively winning them, but it does open up a whole new path for Harris.
On policy issues, more voters in the four states surveyed believed Trump would be better equipped to handle the economy and immigration. However, on the issue of abortion, Vice President Harris held a significant lead over Trump with 56% support to his 38. Pollster Cooperman noted that there is “just such enthusiasm around her right now and excitement for her candidacy that people are willing to give her the benefit of the doubt.
The poll also found that Sen. JD Vance was viewed favorably by 36% of voters, while 45% had an unfavorable view. In comparison, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was viewed favorably by 38% of voters, with unfavorables at just 35. More than half of the respondents said they were paying “a lot” of attention to the race, suggesting that views are hardening.
Last week, the same poll found that Trump was losing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan by four points – all critical 2024 battleground states. With these close races in key Sunbelt states, both Trump and Harris will need to focus their campaign efforts on winning over undecided voters.
