Florida’s Political Spending Surge: Abortion and Marijuana Initiatives Driving Increases.
Despite no longer being considered a battleground state, political spending in Florida is expected to exceed $464 million for the current campaign cycle, marking one of the largest increases over previous predictions, according to the latest Political Projections Report by AdImpact. Florida’s projected increase in political spending stands at almost $69 million, following Maryland, Montana, and Ohio.
The surge in spending in Florida is attributed to the presence of abortion and marijuana initiatives on the ballot scheduled for November 5th. These initiatives have garnered significant interest and attracted substantial financial support from various stakeholders. As a result, Florida ranks fourth behind Maryland in terms of predicted increases in political spending, with Maryland’s projection showing almost $100 million more than previously anticipated. Montana follows closely with an increase of $85 million, while Ohio has increased its projections by $78 million.
The Political Projections Report highlights the significant shifts observed in the political spending landscape since September 2023, leading to substantial updates to state-level spending predictions. California is projected to lead the pack with over $1.1 billion spent on political campaigns, a figure that easily outpaces all other states. Arizona comes in second with an expected expenditure of $803 million, followed closely by Pennsylvania at $800 million.
The presidential primary was identified as “one of the most significant unknowns” due to the large number of Republican candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. It was initially anticipated that spending would continue until a nominee had been selected; however, the primary proved less competitive and less expensive than expected. By March 12th, when former President Trump emerged as the presumptive nominee, Republicans had spent only $300 million on political advertisements targeting the presidential primary date.
In total, just over $500 million was spent on political ads aimed at the presidential primary. Florida, in particular, saw a expenditure of $103 million on the presidential primary, ranking 10th among all 50 states. The largest spending occurred in battleground states like Pennsylvania, which had $360 million in spending during the presidential primary, leading nationally. Arizona ranked second with $299 million, and Georgia came in third with $244 million.
Swing states are most likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 election, and it is expected that there will be a 17% increase in spending compared to the 2020 election cycle, with a projected total of $2.1 billion spent on political campaigns this year.
