The Emerson College Polling survey revealed that over 25% of respondents were more likely to endorse the presumed GOP nominee following former President Donald Trump’s conviction in his New York hush money case. The poll showed that 40% of voters said the conviction made no impact on their voting decisions for November’s election, while 33% stated they would be less inclined to support the leader of the Republican Party due to the conviction. Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, stated Trump’s support in their poll remained consistent before and after his conviction.
Last Thursday, a New York jury rendered a historic verdict, finding the former president guilty of 34 felonies related to falsifying corporate records. Trump continues to maintain his innocence, and it is expected that an appeal will be filed with the court. The study found that 46% of registered voters still favor Trump, reflecting the stability of his core support base. In the poll conducted in April, his percentage remained consistent. His lead over his primary opponent, President Joe Biden, dropped from a three-point advantage to one point.
According to the poll, most Republicans (55%) said that their conviction makes them more likely to support the former president, while the majority of Democrats (51%) claimed it made them less likely to support Trump. Around 41% of independents stated that the conviction had an effect on their voting decisions. About 38% of respondents indicated they would be less likely to vote for the former president, while 21% said they would be more inclined to do so.
On July 11th, which is just four days before the Republican National Convention in 2024, Trump is set to be sentenced. According to 40% of respondents in the survey, he should serve time in prison. 15% said he should be placed on probation, and 25% thought he should pay a fine. The survey was conducted with one thousand registered voters from June 4th to June 5th.
The poll comes as Trump’s campaign has officially sent vice presidential vetting papers to potential running mates. NBC News reported that Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), plus Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), have received the forms, as well as North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum (R) and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson. The Associated Press reported that the process is “heavily concentrated on four top prospects” – Burgum, Rubio, Scott, and Vance.
The absence of South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem (R), Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) as vetting prospects is conspicuous in multiple high-profile reports, all relying on sources familiar with Trump’s campaign. However, the process remains fluid, an insider told the Associated Press.
Trump campaign spokesperson Brian Hughes stated that anyone claiming to know who or when President Trump will choose his VP is lying unless they are named Donald J. Trump. In a video posted to his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, Trump doubled down on his prediction of winning a historically blue state. The former president, born in Queens, New York, said he would win the state of New York in the presidential election. While polling suggests otherwise at the moment, Trump expressed confidence that with support from voters, they could make history by winning New York.
There’s tremendous discontent in New York with hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants taking over your schools and your playgrounds, and the crime that’s happening in the city of New York and the state of New York,” Trump said. The lack of supervision, the lack of control, the lack of leadership, terrible things are happening in New York. I think we can win it.
