The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted an “extraordinary” hurricane season for this year, with between 17 to 25 named tropical storms and eight to 13 hurricanes – the most of any pre-season forecast. Of these, between four and seven tropical storms are expected to become major hurricanes, which have winds exceeding 111 mph. Richard Spinrad, NOAA administrator, said, “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic region spans from June to November, with most activity occurring between August and October. On average, previous years have seen 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and just three major hurricanes. The perilous predictions are due to various factors including near-record warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which provide energy that helps further fuel storm development, according to NOAA.
Expected La Niña conditions in the late summer will also help with hurricane development, NOAA climate scientists said. The climate pattern leads to reduced vertical wind shear, or difference in wind speed with height, making it easier for hurricanes to form. This heightened potential for severe storms has New Yorkers on edge, recalling Hurricane Sandy which killed at least 44 people and caused $19 billion in economic damage in the city.
Others are scarred from the recent devastation of Hurricane Ida in 2021, which hit the Big Apple as a post-tropical cyclone, engulfing parts of Queens with flash floods and killing 13 people. We’re constantly living in fear,” said Amrita Bhagwandin, 54, whose Hollis, Queens home suffered $200,000 in damages during Ida, while two of her neighbors were killed in the flooding.
An April report by Colorado State University found that the continental United States coastline had a 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year, up from the historical average prediction of 43. Aries Dela Cruz, a spokesman for the city’s Office of Emergency Management (OEM), said the agency has been educating residents about their risk and evacuation procedures, had implemented messaging and a notification service for basement residents who are especially at risk for flooding. He added that OEM recently tested “tiger dams” that can be used to protect against flooding during extreme weather conditions.
In conclusion, the NOAA’s extraordinary hurricane season prediction has raised concerns among coastal communities, particularly in New York City where residents recall the devastation caused by Hurricanes Sandy and Ida. The OEM is committed to year-round hurricane preparedness, educating residents about their risks and evacuation procedures, and testing new flood protection measures to ensure the safety of all during this potentially severe hurricane season.
