Former President Donald Trump is gearing up for a rematch with President Joe Biden in the upcoming presidential election, with hopes of unseating the incumbent Democratic president. Biden’s approval ratings have been lackluster, reminiscent of one-term president Jimmy Carter. In fact, as of February, Biden’s job approval rating stood at 38%, just above Carter’s record-low Gallup rating of 37.4% after his third year in office.
There are parallels between Carter’s re-election bid in 1980 and Biden’s current situation. Carter initially had a strong lead over Reagan in the polls, thanks to public sympathy and support for the Iranian hostage crisis. However, as the months went on, Reagan closed the gap and ultimately won the election in a landslide.
While there is no direct comparison between Biden and Trump in 2024, recent polls show a close race, with Trump maintaining a slight lead over Biden. A poll released on Sunday found Trump at 49% support, while Biden registered at 47%, a statistical tie within the margin of sampling error.
Craig Shirley, a Reagan biographer, believes that Trump can repeat Reagan’s success by making Biden the issue in this campaign. Shirley points to immigration and inflation as key issues that Trump has effectively attacked Biden on. Immigration is Trump’s “signature issue,” just as anti-communism was Reagan’s signature issue.
Shirley emphasizes that the winning issue cluster for Reagan in 1980 included strong national defense, federalism, tax cuts, and individual rights. These are still the winning issues for the Republican Party, and Trump must focus on them to be a viable alternative to Biden.
In addition to Biden’s struggles, Trump faces his own challenges in the upcoming election. He is the first president or former president to face criminal charges and is currently dealing with four major trials and a total of 91 indictments. However, Shirley believes that Trump’s previous experience as president and his ability to step into the job make him an acceptable alternative to Biden.
As the 2024 campaign heats up, both Trump and Biden will need to navigate a range of issues, including the economy, foreign policy crises, and public sentiment. The race is shaping up to be a close one, with each candidate facing their own set of challenges and opportunities.
