US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has announced that the United States and Iraq have agreed to initiate talks regarding the future of the US-led military coalition in Iraq. The primary objective of these discussions is to establish a timetable for a phased withdrawal of troops and the eventual end of the coalition. This development comes after years of US presence in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, with combat forces leaving in 2011 but returning in 2014 to combat ISIL (ISIS) alongside the Iraqi government.
The presence of US forces has been a contentious issue, particularly for Iran-aligned militias and politicians in Iraq who view it as a lightning rod for instability. In response to these concerns, Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that it aims to create a specific and clear timetable for the presence of international coalition advisors in the country. The gradual reduction of advisors on Iraqi soil is intended to lead to the complete end of the coalition mission. Additionally, Iraq is committed to ensuring the safety of the international coalition’s advisors and maintaining stability to prevent further escalation.
The discussions between the United States and Iraq will take place as part of a higher military commission that was agreed upon in August 2023. The objective of these talks is to facilitate the transition to an enduring bilateral security partnership between Iraq and the United States. Iraq, having declared ISIL defeated, seeks to establish bilateral relations with coalition members and explore opportunities for military cooperation in terms of training and equipment.
Despite the intention to withdraw US forces, both US and Iraqi officials have acknowledged that the process will take considerable time, with no immediate withdrawal imminent. There are concerns that a hasty withdrawal may create a security vacuum that could be exploited by Iran or ISIL, which still maintains sleeper cells and carries out low-level attacks in the region.
The outcome of these talks remains uncertain, but it is evident that both governments are committed to finding a mutually beneficial solution. The future of the US-led military coalition in Iraq will undoubtedly have significant implications for regional stability and the ongoing geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.
