DES MOINES, Iowa – After more than a year of campaigning, the Republican presidential nomination race is finally reaching a critical point as Iowa voters head to caucus sites on Monday night. Former President Donald Trump, the commanding frontrunner in national surveys, is urging his supporters to get out and vote. Despite facing four indictments, including charges related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, Trump’s support among Republican voters remains strong.
According to the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom/NBC News poll, Trump holds a commanding lead with 48% support among likely Republican caucusgoers. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are battling for a distant second place with 20% and 16% support, respectively. Meanwhile, first-time candidate Vivek Ramaswamy stands at 8% in the polls.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom/NBC News poll, conducted by renowned pollster Ann Selzer, is highly regarded for its accuracy in past GOP caucuses, making it the gold standard in Iowa polling. However, both DeSantis and Haley have questioned whether Trump can meet the high expectations set for him in Iowa. DeSantis’ campaign manager, James Uthmeier, has warned that failure to fulfill these expectations could spell doom for Trump’s campaign in the future. Haley, on the other hand, has emphasized that all eyes will be on Trump to see if he falls below the 50% threshold.
Republican strategist David Kochel, a neutral observer in the race, noted that there are two campaigns going on in Iowa: Trump vs. his expectations, and Haley vs. DeSantis for the right to challenge Trump directly. Trump and his campaign have taken aim at the high expectations, arguing that public polls may be exaggerating his support. Haley, who has gained momentum in recent weeks, has framed the nomination race as a two-candidate battle between herself and Trump.
DeSantis, who was once the clear alternative to Trump, has seen his support erode due to campaign setbacks and negative ads. However, he is relying on his strong ground game in Iowa, backed by the super PAC Never Back Down, to push him across the finish line. Despite speculation about his future in the race, DeSantis has affirmed that he will continue to New Hampshire regardless of his performance in Iowa.
Trump, who narrowly lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016, has significantly expanded his campaign operation in the state this time around. His team has built a volunteer-driven operation in over 1,800 caucus locations, aiming to secure a quick victory in the nomination race. Despite blizzard conditions and frigid temperatures in Iowa, Republican Party leaders remain confident that voters will show up to caucus.
As the Iowa caucuses approach, all eyes are on Trump’s performance and the battle for second place between Haley and DeSantis. The outcome of these caucuses will set the tone for the rest of the Republican nomination race, shaping the trajectory of the 2024 presidential campaign. Stay tuned for the latest updates and exclusive interviews from the campaign trail.
