In a significant development that could impact the political landscape of battleground Wisconsin, an independent analysis has revealed that most of the newly ordered maps redrawing the state Legislature’s political boundaries would keep Republicans in majority control, albeit with reduced dominance. The Wisconsin Supreme Court had given a deadline for proposing new maps after ruling that the current Republican-drawn ones were unconstitutional.
Wisconsin, known as a purple state with a history of close presidential elections, has witnessed recent gains by Democrats, including winning the governor’s office in 2018 and 2022, as well as taking over majority control of the state Supreme Court. These developments set the stage for the redistricting ruling, which has the potential to shake up the state’s political dynamics in a presidential election year.
Under the legislative maps initially enacted by Republicans in 2011, and subsequently in 2022 with minimal changes, the GOP has leveraged its control over the Legislature to block major policy initiatives of Governor Tony Evers and Democratic lawmakers over the past five years. Currently, Republicans hold a 22-11 supermajority in the Senate and a near supermajority of 64-35 in the Assembly. Attaining a supermajority in both chambers would enable them to override Evers’ vetoes, and he has already issued more vetoes than any Wisconsin governor in history.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s ruling deemed the current legislative boundary lines as non-contiguous, violating the state constitution. Consequently, new maps with contiguous districts were ordered, with a requirement that they not favor one party over another. The court’s decision prompted a race against time to meet the March 15 deadline set by the state elections commission for implementing the new boundary lines ahead of the state’s August primary. By June 1, candidates must submit nomination papers signed by residents of their respective districts.
Following the submission of seven sets of new maps on Friday, consultants hired by the Supreme Court will analyze the proposals and issue a report by February 1. While they have the option to develop their own plan, they may also choose to adopt the submitted maps with or without modifications. However, the Supreme Court has asserted that it will implement a map unless the Legislature passes plans acceptable to Governor Evers, a scenario deemed highly unlikely.
Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, along with Governor Evers, a conservative Wisconsin law firm, a liberal law firm involved in the redistricting lawsuit, a group of mathematics professors, and a redistricting consultant, submitted new maps on Friday. Governor Evers emphasized the need for fair maps that reflect Wisconsin’s purple state status, rather than favoring a particular political party.
An analysis conducted by Marquette University Law School research fellow John D. Johnson projected the results of the 2022 state legislative election using a statistical model based on the newly proposed districts. While this year’s election will witness different Senate seats being contested and higher voter turnout due to the presidential election, the analysis indicates that the Assembly maps would maintain a Republican majority, ranging from as low as one seat to the current 29-seat margin.
The map submitted by Law Forward, a Madison-based law firm representing Democratic voters, proposes a 50-49 Republican majority, while Republican lawmakers seek to maintain the current 64-35 breakdown. Republicans addressed the contiguity issue in their maps, resulting in fewer changes to the boundary lines compared to other proposals.
In the Senate, Johnson’s analysis suggests that five of the seven submitted plans would maintain the Republican majority, with the range varying from one seat under plans from Governor Evers and Law Forward, to 13 seats under the Republican map. On the other hand, the maps proposed by Senate Democrats and a redistricting consultant would give Democrats a narrow majority of either three seats or one seat.
Republicans have indicated their intention to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing due process violations. It remains uncertain when this appeal would occur. Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has suggested that the appeal will question the participation of liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz, who had criticized the current maps as “rigged” and “unfair” during her election campaign. Her vote played a decisive role in the ruling that called for new maps to be drawn.
The implications of the redistricting ruling in Wisconsin could have far-reaching consequences for the balance of power in the state’s political arena. As the process moves forward, it will be closely watched by politicians, experts, and the public, as the battle for fair representation continues in this pivotal battleground state.
