Despite rising public anger in Morocco over Israel’s war on Gaza, analysts believe that the normalisation deal between Morocco and Israel will likely remain intact. Since October, Morocco has witnessed regular protests against Israel’s actions in Gaza, with thousands demanding stronger action from their government. However, despite these demands, the Moroccan government has continued to call for a ceasefire and support a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Morocco’s recognition of Israel came at the end of 2020 when it signed the Abraham Accords, joining the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Sudan in normalizing relations with Israel. In return, Morocco sought US recognition of its claim to the disputed territory of Western Sahara and increased trade and investment ties with Israel. However, public sentiment towards Israel in Morocco has historically been lukewarm, with few Moroccans supporting the idea of normalization.
In the midst of the ongoing conflict in Gaza and mounting accusations of Israeli war crimes, Morocco’s relations with Tel Aviv have been strained. Royal Air Maroc canceled direct flights between the two countries, and Israel’s liaison office in Rabat was evacuated. Additionally, businesses catering to Israeli tourists have closed, and the status of various projects remains uncertain.
Despite slow progress in economic ties, Morocco and Israel have experienced closer collaboration in security and defense. A recent drone deal and an agreement for Israel to develop Moroccan surveillance satellites have further tilted the balance of power in Western Sahara in Morocco’s favor. Military cooperation has become crucial for Morocco, and it would be challenging for the country to walk away from this partnership.
However, despite overwhelming support for the king, the Moroccan people continue to criticize the relationship with Israel. Morocco’s willingness to weather the storm of public fury over the war indicates its determination to maintain its course. While the conflict may slow down Israel’s normalization with other Arab states, it is unlikely to halt the gradual process.
The impact of the war on perceptions of the US and its regional alliances remains uncertain. The signatories of the Abraham Accords justify their decision based on their relations with Tel Aviv and how long Israel chooses to continue its current course. The UAE’s relations with Israel seem unaffected, and negotiations with Saudi Arabia for a similar relationship have only slowed, not stopped.
In conclusion, despite public anger, Morocco is expected to uphold its normalization deal with Israel. The conflict in Gaza may slow down the process of normalization with other Arab states, but it is unlikely to bring it to a halt. The long-term impact of the war on regional alliances and perceptions of the US remains to be seen.
