In a race against time, bipartisan Congressional leaders are attempting to avert a potential partial government shutdown before the looming deadline of January 19. However, the prospects of successfully avoiding a shutdown appear slim, given the limited time available and the complexities of the legislative process.
The current focus is on four government spending bills that are set to expire on January 19. These bills cover areas such as Agriculture, Military Construction/VA, Energy & Water, and Transportation/Housing & Urban Development. Additionally, eight other annual spending bills, including defense and Homeland Security, will expire on February 2. The urgency to pass these bills is evident, but the timeline is tight.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) intends to process the four bills due on January 19 individually, which could further delay the process. While there is a possibility of combining some of these bills, it remains uncertain. The House’s ability to advance the bills next week is crucial, as it will set the pace for the Senate to align with the House. However, the House’s track record in recent times has not been encouraging, adding to the skepticism surrounding the timely passage of the bills.
To expedite the process, the House could employ a procedure called “suspension of the rules,” bypassing the more cumbersome House Rules Committee and reducing debate time. However, this approach requires a two-thirds vote to pass the bills, which may not garner sufficient support from ultra-conservatives. Nevertheless, a coalition of Republicans and Democrats could potentially secure over 300 votes, surpassing the required threshold.
Despite these challenges in the House, the situation in the Senate is even more complex. While the Senate can move swiftly with unanimous agreement from all 100 senators, processing several spending bills according to protocol could consume significant time. It is essential for both the House and Senate to be in alignment before a bill can be sent to President Biden for signing.
The possibility of a government shutdown remains high due to the conservative faction’s insistence on linking the border crisis to funding decisions, despite this deadline and set of bills having no direct connection to immigration issues. Some conservatives argue that a shutdown would be necessary to force action on border security. However, it is worth noting that no side has ever gained political advantage from a government shutdown, and the policy victories resulting from previous shutdowns have been limited.
The pending deadline on February 2 for addressing all 12 annual spending plans adds to the urgency and potential calamity. Failure to address these plans by the deadline could lead to a complete government shutdown. Any political gains that Speaker Johnson may receive from the right due to a shutdown could be undermined by a bipartisan agreement to fund the government.
While Democrats are pleased with the current deal, as Republicans did not push for deeper cuts, they are also aware that a government shutdown would highlight the chaos within the GOP and provide Democrats with more political ammunition. Additionally, the possibility of an interim spending deal or a continuing resolution (CR) is being discussed. Republicans have proposed a one percent across-the-board cut in funding, while Democrats prefer a regular CR without any cuts.
As the deadline approaches, lawmakers find themselves in a challenging situation. With limited time and differing priorities, the path to avoiding a government shutdown remains uncertain. The next few days will be crucial as Congress strives to find a solution that funds the government and addresses the various demands and concerns from both sides of the aisle.
Chad Pergram, a senior congressional correspondent for FOX News Channel, provides insights into the current situation and the ongoing efforts to avert a potential government shutdown. Stay tuned for updates from the 2024 campaign trail and exclusive interviews on politics.
