The recent targeted killing of top Hamas officials in Beirut has sent shockwaves across the Middle East and raised fears of an escalation in the conflict. The victims of the attack, which is alleged to be an Israeli operation, included senior Hamas leaders such as Saleh al-Arouri, a former leader of the Qassam Brigades and member of the political bureau of Hamas. The timing of the assassination has sparked speculation about its connection to Israeli domestic politics.
The assassination bears the marks of classic Israeli long-distance targeted eliminations of high-value human targets. Al-Arouri and his companions were killed in a strike that pinpointed a second-floor apartment, using a combination of an Israeli-built Hermes drone and Nimrod missile. This attack has evoked memories of previous Israeli military actions in Beirut, such as the notorious clandestine killing of three top Palestinian leaders in 1973.
The reasons behind the targeting of al-Arouri are not entirely clear, but his high rank within Hamas and his reported independent-mindedness make him a significant loss for the group. He had developed his own international contacts and network, including close physical contacts with Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and Iranian political and military representatives in south Beirut. Hamas will face challenges in immediately replacing him and his role as a trusted partner.
The timing of the assassination raises questions about the motives behind it. With the relative quiet in the north and the demobilization of Israeli forces, some believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see the continuation of war as being in his direct interest. Prolonging the war and preventing inquiries into failures on the Israeli side could serve his political agenda. Additionally, the assassination provides an opportunity for politicians with extreme views, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to advocate for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and resettlement of Israelis instead.
The big question now is whether Hezbollah will react to this provocation. A high-level Iranian delegation has arrived in Beirut, and Hezbollah leader Nasrallah is conferring with his Iranian allies. The response from Hezbollah will likely emerge from these meetings.
The assassination of Hamas leaders in Beirut has not only opened old wounds but also raised concerns about the potential escalation of the conflict. The motives behind the operation and its timing are still unclear, but the implications for the region are significant. As tensions continue to rise, the international community will be closely watching the next moves of all parties involved.
