The upcoming activation of Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), a United States Navy-led coalition aimed at ensuring safe navigation in the Red Sea, is facing skepticism from key NATO countries. France, Italy, and Spain have snubbed the operation, raising concerns about its effectiveness. OPG’s mission to secure safe passage for commercial ships has been met with uncertainty, as naval officers call for clear mandates and precise tasks to address the growing threat posed by antiship missiles and explosive drones launched by the Houthi group in Yemen.
The Houthi group, also known as Ansar Allah, now controls most of Yemen, including a significant portion of its Red Sea coast. Recent attacks on merchant ships, initially targeting Israeli-owned vessels but later expanding to include all ships trading with Israel, have underscored the need for a robust response. While US and French warships have successfully intercepted these missiles, the modern vertical-launch systems and advanced radar technology have proven their effectiveness. Many nations participating in OPG have similar capabilities and are prepared to contribute.
One possible approach to address the threat is to implement convoy operations, where commercial ships sail in columns at defined distances, with warships providing protection. This strategy, employed by the United Kingdom, Russia, and other countries during World War II, has proven effective. However, convoys have limitations, particularly when it comes to the size of modern cargo ships, which present significant targets. Additionally, commercial ship captains lack experience in convoy operations, and their escorts have limited missile capacity.
To ensure safe passage through the critical 250 nautical miles along Yemen’s coast, ships would be exposed to Houthi missiles and drones for an extended period, making them vulnerable. Moreover, staging areas for convoys in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden pose additional risks. The Houthi group has demonstrated its ability to launch simultaneous attacks from multiple directions, as evidenced by the prolonged attack on USS Carney, a destroyer operating in the Red Sea.
Naval planners are concerned about the Houthi group’s missile infrastructure in Yemen and advocate for proactive measures to neutralize this threat. Targeting fixed and mobile launch sites, production and storage facilities, and command centers would significantly reduce the Houthi’s ship-targeting capability. However, such actions carry political risks, as they could be perceived as the US taking sides in the conflict between the Houthis and Israel.
The US has been cautious in its approach, engaging with regional powers and emphasizing a desire to avoid escalation. However, the closure of the Red Sea route would have severe economic consequences for the US, Europe, and Asia. The current proposal of escorting convoys without attacking land-based missile sites may not be sufficient to ensure safe passage. The US faces a challenging dilemma: taking no action could lead to economic downturn, while direct military intervention may result in an uncontrollable escalation of the conflict.
France, Italy, and Spain have opted for a cautious approach, deploying their frigates to the Red Sea to protect their respective nations’ ships. This allows them to distance themselves from any potential escalation resulting from US-led attacks on Yemen. The responsibility for intensifying the conflict would fall solely on the US.
In conclusion, the activation of Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea faces challenges as the Houthi threat grows. The need for clear mandates and precise tasks, along with concerns about the effectiveness of convoy operations, highlight the complexity of ensuring safe passage for commercial ships. The US and its allies must carefully navigate the risks involved, weighing economic consequences against the potential for an uncontrollable escalation of the conflict.
