New York’s highest court has ordered the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) to redraw congressional district lines ahead of the 2024 election cycle, posing a threat to vulnerable GOP seats. The decision, handed down last week by the New York Court of Appeals, comes as Democrats aim to regain seats lost during the 2022 elections. The IRC has been given a deadline of February 28 to submit the new congressional maps to the state legislature. However, there are concerns that this redistricting process could lead to a situation similar to the one in 2022, with legal challenges and separate primary elections.
The redistricting saga in New York began before the 2022 election cycle when voters approved an amendment to the state’s constitution that aimed to reform the redistricting process and prevent partisan gerrymandering. This led to the creation of the bipartisan IRC. However, the commission failed to reach a consensus before the 2022 election, allowing the Democrat-controlled legislature to step in and draw the maps.
The redrawn maps, signed into law by Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, faced legal action from Republicans who argued that they gave Democrats an advantage in 22 out of the state’s 26 districts. A county judge initially struck down the maps, but Democrats took the case to the Court of Appeals, which also ruled against the maps. A “special master” was then appointed to redraw the lines before the 2022 election.
Despite winning five out of the six competitive House races in New York and flipping four blue seats red in 2022, the confusion surrounding the redistricting process led to the state holding two separate primaries. This resulted in additional costs for taxpayers, estimated to be around $120 million. With the court’s recent ruling directing the IRC to redraw the maps on a tight deadline, there is a possibility of a similar situation in 2024 if Republicans challenge the new maps.
Even before the court’s ruling, a group called Stop NY Corruption had already floated the idea of a lawsuit to keep the current maps. They argue that there is no reason to redraw new maps as the Democrats themselves did not object to the maps in their previous lawsuit. The constitutional attorney representing Stop NY Corruption emphasized that the decision to file a lawsuit would depend on the outcome of the redistricting process.
The unique aspect of redistricting in New York is its state constitution’s strong prohibition on partisan gerrymandering. Both sides are expected to present their experts, with one side arguing that the maps are gerrymandered and the other side claiming they are not. The Court of Appeals, which recently underwent a leadership change, will play a crucial role in any potential legal challenges.
While some Democrats and left-leaning groups may support the order to redistrict, others, including the League of Women Voters of New York, have been vocal against gerrymandering. The League of Women Voters was part of the coalition that advocated for the anti-gerrymandering amendment in 2014.
The redistricting process is causing concern among Black voters in Westchester County. They fear that the boundaries of important Black districts have been shifted in a way that could potentially disenfranchise Black voters. Democratic Representative Jamaal Bowman and former Congressman Mondaire Jones, both Black men, are cited as examples of potential disenfranchisement.
As the redistricting process unfolds, Democratic leadership aims to maximize their gains, which could result in some Democratically-held seats becoming more Republican. Incumbent Democratic members may be wary of the potential consequences of the new maps.
The independent commission has until February 28 to complete the redrawing of the maps, which will then be sent to the Democratic-controlled Legislature for approval or adjustments. Experts are warning New York voters and politicos to brace themselves for the 2024 election cycle, as the redistricting battle unfolds.
