The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is contemplating the implementation of export control measures as concerns rise regarding the potential escalation of the Israel-Gaza conflict across the region. This move comes as the UAE continues to face criticism from the United States and the European Union for its ties to Russia, which have hindered Western efforts to economically pressure Moscow in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Representatives from the United Kingdom, EU, and US recently visited the UAE in early September to express their concerns over the country’s connections to Russia. These Western governments have been striving to restrict Russian access to certain dual-use products, such as computer chips and electronic components that can strengthen Russia’s military capabilities.
Earlier this year, the US warned the UAE, Oman, and Turkey against evading sanctions and export controls imposed on Moscow. In April, the US imposed sanctions on two UAE-based entities, Aeromotus Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Trading LLC and Hulm Al Sahra Electric Devices Trading, for allegedly sending drones, robotics technology, and other goods to Russian importers.
In response to mounting pressures from the West and the potential threat of the Israel-Hamas conflict spilling into other parts of the Middle East, the UAE is considering introducing export licenses on certain technologies, including semiconductors. These measures, if implemented, would not only be a response to Western demands but also a means for the UAE to strengthen its ties with the US, its ultimate security guarantor, amid growing regional tensions.
Experts suggest that the introduction of export licenses would signify the UAE’s recognition that complying with Western demands outweighs the benefits of its trade with Russia. Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, emphasizes the UAE’s desire to protect itself against potential threats from Iran and maintain good relations with the US.
However, it remains uncertain how significant of an impact these export control measures would have on Emirati-Russian relations. Moscow is likely to understand that the UAE would be implementing these measures under Western pressure. While the UAE aims to reinforce its reputation as a reliable trade hub in the Middle East and safeguard its national security concerns regarding the Russia-Iran partnership, it also has reservations about potential consequences.
The UAE has concerns about Moscow’s deepening partnership with Tehran due to Tehran’s sponsorship of non-state actors and its drone and ballistic missile activities. Emirati officials worry that this alliance could exacerbate security crises in the Middle East. On the other hand, the UAE is cautious about fully aligning with the West on Russia-related issues, as it fears that increased cooperation with the UAE could push Russia closer to Iran in Emirati-Iranian relations.
While the UAE may introduce export licenses to appease Western capitals, some experts question the country’s enthusiasm for damaging its relations with Russia. Imad Harb, the director of Research and Analysis at Arab Center Washington, DC, suggests that even if export controls are implemented, there are ways for companies and individuals to bypass them to protect their business and commercial interests. Harb also notes that the UAE could potentially sell technology through Iran, which maintains good relations with Russia and may be willing to help Moscow evade sanctions.
Overall, the UAE’s consideration of export control measures reflects its diplomatic balancing act between Western pressures and its own national interests. The potential implementation of these measures could have varying effects on Emirati-Russian relations, and it remains to be seen how the UAE will navigate this complex geopolitical landscape. With the COP28 on the horizon, the UAE seeks stability in its neighborhood and will weigh its decisions carefully to maintain its position as a major player in the region.
