Republican Jewish Coalition CEO Matt Brooks and contributor Ari Fleischer predict that others will follow in former Vice President Mike Pence’s footsteps after he suspended his 2024 GOP presidential campaign. Former President Donald Trump, however, remains ahead of his rivals in the national polling and early state surveys, with a commanding 27-point lead in Iowa. With just 11 weeks until the Iowa caucuses kick off the 2024 GOP presidential nominating calendar, Trump’s advantage in fundraising and popularity continues to solidify his position.
Trump’s lead has expanded over the spring and summer despite facing four indictments, including charges related to overturning his 2020 presidential election loss. These indictments have not affected his support among Republican voters. Seasoned Republican strategist Ryan Williams states that there is no indication anything can change the trajectory of the race before voting begins.
During the recent Republican Jewish Coalition leadership summit in Las Vegas, Trump joined his rivals on the same stage for the second time this cycle. Despite controversial comments about Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah, Trump received the most sustained applause from influential Republican leaders, donors, and activists.
Shortly before Trump’s appearance, Pence suspended his campaign due to lackluster fundraising and struggles to qualify for the upcoming debate. Pence made a final appeal for the GOP to return to its conservative roots, but his message did not resonate with a Republican Party heavily influenced by Trump.
Late-deciding voters in Iowa and New Hampshire could still impact the race. Republican Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire stated that voters may not make their decisions until late December or early January. Republican strategist Jim Merrill suggests that campaigns on the outside looking in have one more month to strategically assess their viability. However, if the race remains unchanged, it is likely that Trump will secure the nomination.
While former ambassador Nikki Haley has seen a rise in poll numbers in Iowa, New Hampshire, and her home state, she still trails behind Trump. Conservative strategist Nicole Schlinger believes that there may be potential for momentum if someone can break out, but if the race remains as it is today, Trump will be the nominee.
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