In a recent interview with ‘FOX & Friends’, Lawrence Jones discusses the potential for another Republican candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump’s commanding lead in the polls and the implications this could have for the 2024 general election. While Trump may seem like the inevitable Republican nominee, there are a few real pathways for another Republican to take advantage of the primary calendar and give Trump a run for his money.
The most recent Fox poll in Iowa, the first stop on the road to the nomination, shows Trump at 46% support, with a significant lead over his rivals. However, it is important to note that someone will finish second in Iowa, and this individual could gain momentum and attract Republicans who are not sold on a third Trump nomination. This candidate, referred to as “Iowa Silver,” would then head into an early primary calendar with the opportunity to challenge the frontrunner.
Although “Iowa Silver” is likely to be a distant second, history has shown that New Hampshire voters often give the second-place Iowa finisher a solid look. In 1984, Senator Gary Hart came in second in Iowa but went on to win the New Hampshire primary by a significant margin. If these factors play out, the leading alternative candidate could gain more delegates than current polling suggests, making the overall race more competitive.
However, once Super Tuesday arrives, the shape of the race is expected to favor Trump once again. Many states award all delegates to the majority vote winner or require candidates to reach a high threshold to win any delegates, making it harder for a challenger to take down the frontrunner. Currently, polling shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the No. 2 candidate, followed by Nikki Haley. While DeSantis’ support has fallen, he remains in second place in national and Iowa polls. Haley, on the other hand, is making gains in New Hampshire and Iowa, benefiting from the primary calendar as South Carolina is also an early state.
It is crucial to keep an eye on the calendar and whether “Iowa Silver” can capitalize on a second-place finish. While Trump maintains a commanding lead in the polls, the 2024 election could bring about a different outcome than the 2020 election. In that race, President Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump, with the average margin in the three closest states being about 14,000 votes. Biden’s margin for error in 2024 is minimal, with head-to-head polling averages showing support for both candidates at about 45 points each.
There are approximately 10 points of undecided vote, and where these voters go will depend on a variety of unique issues in 2024. Concerns over President Biden’s handling of the economy and immigration are giving Republicans reason to worry, while a non-Trump nomination could be a game changer for the GOP, potentially reducing turnout for both parties and appealing to more moderate voters. Additionally, unknown factors such as the threat of war, the impact of Trump trials, or a Biden health scare could significantly influence the outcome of the race.
Furthermore, the emergence of three nascent third-party efforts adds another layer of complexity. Based on polling and messaging, these candidates appeal to specific voter demographics, potentially further reshaping the 2024 election landscape.
While the most likely outcome is that Trump will win the nomination, the potential for an alternative candidate to challenge his dominance cannot be ignored. With the right momentum and strategic positioning, “Iowa Silver” or another suitable candidate could make the overall race more competitive and shake up the 2024 presidential election.
