In a recent discussion on the popular show ‘Outnumbered,’ the panel delved into New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s controversial initiative to halt residents’ Second Amendment rights. While Republicans are focused on capturing the Senate majority in 2024, New Mexico seems to be off their radar. Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich is up for re-election next year, but experts in nonpartisan political analysis rate New Mexico as a solid Democrat stronghold in the upcoming battle for the Senate. Furthermore, in President Biden’s bid for re-election next year, the state is also considered safe for the Democrats. Biden had secured a ten-point victory in New Mexico during his 2020 White House campaign, solidifying the state’s Democratic leanings.
Political analyst Joe Monahan, based in New Mexico, commented on the rapid shift from a purple state to a deep blue stronghold. He emphasized that although the state is not as deeply Democratic as California, it has seen a significant change in political landscape. All statewide offices, the entire congressional delegation, and both houses of the legislature now belong to the Democrats. This sweeping change is a far cry from the past when Republicans dominated the state. From 1968 to 1988, Republicans won New Mexico in six consecutive presidential elections. However, since then, the only time a Republican has won the state in a White House race was in 2004 when President George W. Bush secured a razor-thin victory.
The reasons behind this transformation can be attributed to the changing political scene for Republicans and shifting demographics. Monahan suggests that the Republican Party’s shift towards the right did not align well with New Mexico’s centrist nature, ultimately contributing to the state’s Democratic tilt. Additionally, the increasing Hispanic population, which now constitutes a significant percentage of the overall population, has not been receptive to the Republican stance on immigration. The state’s largest cities, including Albuquerque, Lac Cruces, and Santa Fe, have experienced the most population growth and tend to lean towards the Democratic Party or identify as independents.
While some may celebrate New Mexico’s transition to a one-party state, others express concern about the lack of political diversity. Monahan highlights the need for a healthy balance of political power and suggests that the current situation may not be ideal.
Looking ahead to the 2024 elections, Monahan notes that no major Republican candidate has entered the Senate race yet, which is somewhat unusual at this point in the cycle. However, there is a glimmer of hope for the GOP in New Mexico. Monahan points out that Republicans still have a chance to secure a victory in the state’s Second Congressional District, which covers the southern part of New Mexico. A Republican win in this swing district could inject new life into the party.
Overall, New Mexico’s political shift from a reliably red state to a top battleground for Democrats showcases the changing dynamics of American politics. As the state leans towards deep blue, Republicans face the challenge of adapting their strategies and appealing to a diverse electorate in order to regain their foothold in this once-Republican stronghold.
