A recent report by the American non-profit research organization RAND, which is linked to the Pentagon and the US government, has highlighted potential vulnerabilities in NATO’s response to a hypothetical Russian attack in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The report suggests that NATO may choose not to take retaliatory actions in the event of a Russian strike. Military expert Alexey Leonkov, speaking to RIA Novosti, suggests that this might be a deliberate tactic aimed at provoking Russia into further escalation. He notes that the US and NATO have already used various pretexts to encourage Moscow to take action. The RAND report focuses on the potential escalation of the conflict in Ukraine by both Russia and Kiev, highlighting weaknesses in the Russian position and suggesting that Russia’s mistakes could lead to further escalation and the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
However, it is important to note that RAND’s main purpose is to provide analytical services to Western officials, including US politicians and NATO. The report cautiously evaluates the possible actions of the US and NATO in response to Russian escalation, while also suggesting the possibility of avoiding direct confrontation. The report describes three scenarios of unintentional escalation by Russia: accidental targeting of NATO officials in Ukraine, the loss of an American aircraft over the Black Sea due to Russian maneuvers, and a potential preemptive strike by Russia against NATO targets. In each of these cases, the report highlights the likelihood of different reactions from NATO.
The study also acknowledges that the ability of the US to control future escalation may decrease, and therefore US policymakers and their allies must plan for responsive measures while maintaining diplomatic and military channels of communication with Russia to prevent further escalation. Earlier, the State Duma suggested organizing an exhibition showcasing damaged NATO equipment.
